Villanova Preview: Guards the Key Against Experienced Utah State

Villanova Men’s Basketball will make their triumphant return to the NCAA Tournament at 4:10 p.m. EDT on Friday, March 20 against No. 9 seed Utah State on TNT.

The Wildcats (24-8) last made the Big Dance under Jay Wright in 2022 and enter as a slight underdog despite their higher seed. ESPN Analytics simulations see the Aggies win in 51.9 percent of simulations, while FanDuel Sportsbook lists Villanova as a +104 underdog on the money line. The over/under sits at 146.5 in a game between two balanced teams, and the point spread at a miniscule -1.5 in the Aggies’ favor.

This will mark just the second matchup between these two programs, and the first in more than 65 years. Despite that, they have plenty of familiarity with each others’ systems. Utah State head coach Jerrod Calhoun uses a version of the matchup zone that Wildcats’ head coach Kevin Willard’s father, Ralph, pioneered. Calhoun also spent time as an assistant at West Virginia during the Mountaineers’ Big East days, facing Willard’s Seton Hall Pirates and learning to play a guard-heavy style.

Utah State enjoys the benefit of experience, their offense running through physical 6-foot-4 guards MJ Collins Jr. and Mason Falslev, and Willard said that gives the Aggies another advantage playing in Calhoun’s deceptive zone. Villanova faces a steep disadvantage against bigger lineups, however, especially after forward Matt Hodge tore his ACL, so Utah State’s small-ball focus could provide a blessing in disguise.

Scouting the Aggies

Utah State typically goes with a lineup of Collins and Falslev, both of whom average more than 16 points per game, along with forwards Adlan Elamin and Zach Keller and guard Drake Allen. Despite their starting roles, Elamin and Keller both play less than 19 minutes per game, Calhoun prioritizing small ball and cycling through a stable of capable forwards.

Allen averages 7.7 points per game and facilitates his high-scoring teammates, leading the Aggies with 4.7 assists per game. Utah State takes 41.2 percent of their shots from three, Falslev (41.1 percent), Collins (36.6 percent) and bench guard Kolby King (39.5 percent) serving as their chief threats from beyond the arc. 

The team converts on 59.7 percent of their shots from two-point range, however, using their size to attack the paint. As such, Willard talked about the need to protect the rim and prevent them from getting downhill. Senior forward Duke Brennan could play a major role as the Wildcats’ last line of defense.

Utah State averages 34.6 rebounds per game, achieving a slight advantage on the glass despite their size; Villanova pulls down 34.5, a hair behind their opponents’ average, and that disparity grew after Hodge went down. Even so, facing another small team should help them remain competitive on the glass.

The Aggies force 14.2 turnovers per game, the No. 22 mark in the nation, another concern Villanova will need to account for. Falslev and Allen lead the way with two steals apiece, using their length to disrupt their opponents.

Scouting Villanova

Since Hodge’s injury, Willard has trotted out a lineup of guards Acaden Lewis, Bryce Lindsay and Tyler Perkins, wing Malachi Palmer, and Brennan at the 5. Palmer stands 6-foot-6, placing him at a size disadvantage as he plays the 4, but his athleticism helps balance that out. The Wildcats’ chief disadvantage with smaller lineups is on the glass, and that situation can spiral when Palmer isn’t in the game.

Lewis leads the team in steals and assists, making for a natural matchup against Utah State’s big, physical guards. If he can keep the ball out of harm’s way and hold his own in the defensive end, that’ll go a long way to helping Villanova achieve an upset. 

Brennan averages a double double and will need to help the Wildcats keep things even on the glass, pacing himself and staying out of foul trouble as the Aggies cycle through their forward rotation. Whether the Wildcats play man-to-man or switch off, Perkins, perhaps the team’s best defender and their lead scorer, will need to cancel out one of Falslev and Collins to the best of his ability.

Sixth man Devin Askew, a 6-foot-5 point guard, will similarly need to step in seamlessly and provide a plus presence on both ends of the court, True freshman Chris Jeffrey, who Lewis and Willard complimented for his defensive effort during a pregame press conference, could also create a spark off the bench.

Lindsay rounds out the lineup and has improved as a defender throughout the season: he endured a rough introduction to conference play but can power the Wildcats’ offense when his shots are falling, and his ability to make threes will help keep the Aggies’ defense honest.