Villanova Preview: Wildcats Need to Avenge Quad 3 Loss

Villanova Men’s Basketball will have a chance to avenge their worst loss of the season when they travel to face the Creighton Blue Jays at 2:30 p.m. on Saturday, Feb. 14. Fox holds the telecasting rights to this matchup as the Wildcats try to win their fifth game in a row.

The Wildcats (19-5, 10-3 Big East) blew a double digit home lead to the Blue Jays on Jan. 7, losing 76-72 as the trio of Austin Swartz (20 points), Josh Dix and Blake Harper (17 points apiece) took over in the second half. A subsequent losing streak from Creighton dropped the loss quality to Quadrant 3 in the NET rankings, a major stain on Villanova’s tournament résumé. They’ll need to cheer for the Blue Jays the rest of the way, hoping that win can climb back into Quad 2… but for today, they’ll need to take care of business on the road.

The NET rankings and KenPom ratings list Villanova at No. 32 and No. 29, respectively, as of the end of play on Feb. 13. Creighton checks in at No. 80 and No. 76, making this a Quadrant 2 opportunity on the road — one that could climb into Quad 1 if the Blue Jays make it back into the top 75.

FanDuel Sportsbook views the Wildcats as a -188 favorite on the money line, with the point spread set at -3.5 and an over/under of 144.5. Villanova wins in 57.7 percent of ESPN Analytics simulations, slightly longer odds than the sportsbooks are providing.

Currently on a 2-5 skid, Creighton lost a 72-71 heartbreaker at DePaul their last time out, so they’ll have plenty of bulletin board material as they attempt to sweep the Wildcats.

Scouting the Blue Jays

Dix, a 6-foot-6 senior guard, leads the Blue Jays in scoring (11.9 PPG) and steals (0.9 PPG). Swartz (11.5 PPG) is right behind him, while Harper is a 6-foot-7 sophomore who comes off the bench and makes 46 percent of his shots, providing a lanky change-of-pace option.

Creighton pulls down less rebounds than their opponents on average, but they controlled the glass 39-30 against Villanova the first time around, including 13 offensive boards. 6-foot-8 forward Jasen Green (10.8 PPG, 5.1 RPG) leads the category, but the Blue Jays put on a well-rounded effort in the first game: Green led the team but only had seven rebounds.

Senior guard Nik Graves averages 9.8 PPG and leads the team in assists (3.8 per game), while reserve forward Owen Freeman leads Creighton with an average of 0.9 blocks in just 12.4 minutes per game. The Blue Jays don’t excel in any one facet of the game: they make 45.9 percent of their shots (34.9 percent from three) but give up 45.5 percent and 35.8 percent, respectively; their 15.8 assists per game balance out with an average of 11.4 turnovers.

They aren’t overwhelmingly tall, but still tall enough to give the small-statured Wildcats some problems, as they did in the first game they played. KenPom ranks their offensive efficiency at No. 62 and their defensive efficiency at No. 122; Villanova checks in at No. 37 and No. 36, respectively. Paint and mid-range shooting was the Wildcats’ kryptonite in the first game, with Creighton making 22-of-35 shots from two-point range.

No matter how well they play on offense, the Wildcats will struggle to win if they allow another performance like that.

Scouting Villanova

Freshman point guard Acaden Lewis led Villanova with 20 points against the Blue Jays. Duke Brennan (16 points, 12 rebounds) notched a double-double but couldn’t balance out Creighton’s dominance on the glass, while Tyler Perkins‘ (18 points) only misses came from three (7-of-13 and 2-of-8, respectively).

Each of that trio averages in double figures on the season, with Perkins (13.5 PPG) leading the field and Brennan (12.7 PPG, 10.6 RPG) averaging a double-double. Lewis (5.3 assists per game, 2.0 steals per game) ranks second in the Big East in passing in his first season in Division I. 6-foot-8 wing Matt Hodge (9.5 PPG, 0.6 blocks per game) takes two-thirds of his shots from three but can also cycle down into the paint, playing the four or the five as needed when Villanova opts for a smaller lineup.

Bryce Lindsay (12.7 PPG) rounds out the starting lineup but has struggled since the New Year, crossing the ten-point barrier just three times in his last ten games… and scoring 11 points on each of those occasions. Sixth man Devin Askew (9.8 PPG) provides a veteran presence on both ends of the court, while 6-foot-6 sophomore guard Malachi Palmer has played an increasingly important role off the bench in recent weeks.

On the season, Villanova takes 46 percent of shots from three, sinking 36.5 percent of those. That rate fell to 6-of-24 against Creighton the first time around, so their ability to return to form in a tough road environment could prove pivotal.