Phillies Center Fielder Justin Crawford Graduates From Prospect Status

Phillies center fielder Justin Crawford took four at-bats against the Pittsburgh Pirates on Sunday, May 14, crossing the 130 at-bat plateau from prospect to rookie status. The 22-year-old rookie looks very much the part. Slashing .263/.338/.391, his offense checks in around league average, while his defense hasn’t yet panned out.

That’s the biggest drawback so far for Crawford, whose 29.7 feet per second sprint speed ranks in the 98th percentile in Major League Baseball. He should look like a natural in center field, but he all-too-often gets a shoddy jump or takes a poor route tracking down fly balls, turning potential routine plays into misses. Crawford’s speed gives him a chance to save himself, but the best outfielders make extraordinary catches look routine; right now, he’s making routine catches look extraordinary, an excellent example of how the eye test can deceive.

Going Through Growing Pains

Crawford’s -3 outs above average rank No. 208 of 243 qualified outfielders, average arm strength similarly limiting his ability to recover from mistakes. While he has plenty of time to find his footing in the big leagues and his speed is an invaluable crutch, right now the miscues fall under the microscope for a Phillies squad trying to tread water.

At the plate, Crawford strikes out 18.9 percent of the time, better than league average. Even so, opposing pitchers have managed to fool him with breaking balls and off-speed offerings, as evidenced through his 15th-percentile chase rate. Nevertheless, his ability to draw walks sits around league average. While he’s done a good job of timing up on the fastball, most of Crawford’s contact goes into the ground right now, putting a ceiling on his offensive production. Currently on pace for 23 steals, he hasn’t created as much havoc on the basepaths as he did in the minor leagues.

Even though Crawford won’t challenge for rookie of the year this season — barring a red-hot second half to the season — his ability to hold his own at the plate bodes well moving forward. If he can limit unforced errors like poor routes and chasing pitches outside the zone, Crawford’s floor is as a serviceable big league starter.

Improving his groundout to air out ratio, which varies substantially from season to season and currently rests well below league average at 1.8, will also provide a boost.