Villanova Running Laps Around Preseason Predictions

Villanova Men’s Basketball entered the 2025-26 season with low expectations for the first year of head coach Kevin Willard’s tenure. The Wildcats got a late start on the transfer portal and recruiting, hiring Willard at the end of March, and the preseason Big East coaches poll predicted them to finish seventh in the 11-team conference.

College basketball analyst Evan Miyakawa ran 10,000 simulations of the 2025-26 season back in October, determining the best and worst-case outcomes for each of the 365 teams in Division I basketball based on the rosters they’d put together. Operating with the data between the fifth and ninety-fifth percentiles in order to account for outliers, Miyakawa’s simulations had the Wildcats’ median finish at No. 71, their ceiling at No. 27 and their floor at No. 153.

With less than a month to go in the regular season, Miyakawa’s rankings have the Wildcats at No. 30, just a hair off their projected ceiling. Ken Pomeroy listed Villanova at No. 50 to begin the season, and they’re now up to No. 27, while the NET rankings have the Wildcats in the same neighborhood at No. 29. The Wildcats, of course, hold the No. 3 spot in the Big East, trailing just UConn and St. John’s and a clear head and shoulders above the rest of the competition.

With ten of the 13 players on the current roster retaining eligibility beyond this season, including four of five starters and key bench contributors like Malachi Palmer, Braden Pierce and Chris Jeffrey, Villanova’s fast start under Kevin Willard bodes well for future seasons too.