Villanova Preview: Small Ball the Key Against Struggling Panthers

Villanova Men’s Basketball has a chance to get back in the win column when they play the Pittsburgh Panthers at 4:30 p.m. on Saturday, Dec. 13, their first time hosting a team from a major conference this season.

After winning seven straight games and picking up votes in the AP Poll to start the week, the Wildcats (7-2) suffered a blowout loss at No. 2 Michigan their last time out,

Unfortunately for Villanova, the Panthers have struggled to a 5-5 record this season and hold the 163 spot in the NET rankings, making this a Quadrant 4 matchup for the moment. For home games, Quadrant 3 runs from No. 76 to No. 160, so this game’s standing could improve as time goes on, but it remains a must-win for the Wildcats. The KenPom ratings like the Panthers better, listing them at No. 108; Villanova lands at No. 37 in both metrics.

The Wildcats enter as a heavy favorite, with ESPN Analytics simulations giving them an 82.1 percent chance of victory. DraftKings lists them as a -575 favorite, 5.75 to 1 odds, with a point spread of -9.5 and a relatively low over/under of 136.5.

truTV holds the telecasting rights for this game.

Scouting the Panthers

6-foot-10 senior forward Cam Corhen leads Pitt in points (14.0) and rebounds (9.1), making his ability to match up against Villanova’s Duke Brennan an intriguing X-factor. Sophomore guard Brandin Cummings, coming off the bench in the Panthers’ last two games after missing time with an ankle injury, serves as their second-leading scorer (13.7 PPG); 6-foot-6 guard Barry Dunning Jr. (11.4 PPG) and Damarco Minor (11.2 PPG) also average in double figures.

Minor serves as the lead distributor, averaging 3.0 assists and 1.7 turnovers, while Dunning sets the team-high in blocks with 1.2 per game. Freshman and starting guard Omari Witherspoon contributed 28.1 minutes, 7.4 points and 2.9 assists per game, while Nodus Indrusaitis (23.0 MPG, 8.6 PPG) and forward Roman Siulepa (20.9 MPG, 7.0 PPG) also see significant playing time.

The Panthers take 41.4 percent of their shots from three but sink just 34.3 percent of them; they do a good job of limiting opposing threes as well, with opponents taking 37.9 percent of their shots from beyond the arc at a 33.6 percent success rate.

KenPom rates both their offense (No. 97) and defense (No. 142) as middle-of-the-pack, but a 354th-ranked tempo helps suppress scoring totals.

Scouting the Wildcats

All five of Villanova’s starters, meanwhile, average in double figures. Bryce Lindsay leads the pack with 16.4 PPG; Brennan leads the nation in rebounding with 12 boards and 10.6 PPG, averaging a double-double. True freshman point guard Acaden Lewis (5.4 APG) runs the offense and ranks second in scoring (12.6 PPG). He also leads the team in steals (1.3 per game).

Junior guard Tyler Perkins (10.7 PPG) provides an excellent defensive presence, while redshirt freshman forward Matt Hodge (10.3 PPG) rounds out the starting five and can create offense on the perimeter in spite of his 6-foot-8 frame.

Super senior Devin Askew serves as the sixth man and provides steady contributions on both sides of the ball, while bench forward Tafara Gapare (17.6 MPG, 0.9 blocks per game) leads the team in swats.

Villanova takes 47.8 percent of their shots from three but succeeds just 36.5 percent of the time, running hot and cold as one might expect out of a young team. Rebounding can prove problematic for this small-ball heavy lineup, but Pitt also likes to rely on their guards.