Villanova Preview: No. 2 Michigan an All-Around Mismatch

Villanova Basketball will face their toughest test so far this season when they travel to face No. 2 Michigan in a rematch of the 2018 National Championship game at 6:30 p.m. on Tuesday, Dec. 9. FS1 holds the telecasting rights to this matchup.

Winners of seven games in a row, the Wildcats hold just an 11.2 percent chance of victory according to ESPN analytics. FanDuel lists the Wildcats as a +1100 underdog, with a point spread of +16.5 and an over/under of 150.5: not only do the 8-0 Wolverines win games, they do so in dominant fashion. While the No. 2 team in the country can only improve so far, metrics like the KenPom ratings and NET rankings like this Michigan team even more, both listing them at No. 1. Villanova checks in at No. 35 in both.

The Wolverines have a 3-0 record in Quad 1 games and a 2-0 record in Quad 2 games, indicative of the strength of their schedule; Villanova lost their lone Quad 1 matchup against BYU, and all of their seven wins came against Quad 4 opponents. Per KenPom, Michigan boasts the best defensive efficiency in the country and the No. 11 offense. The Wildcats land at No. 55 and No. 27, respectively.

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Scouting the Wolverines

Senior Yaxel Lendeborg and sophomore Morez Johnson Jr., both 6-foot-9, start at forward for the Wolverines. 7-foot-3 Spanish center Aday Mara furthers their overwhelming size advantage, and guards Elliot Cadeau and Nimari Burnett round out the starting five.

Lendeborg leads the team in scoring with 15.9 points per game and Mara averages 9.4 points, 9.0 rebounds and 2.9 blocks in just 21.9 minutes. Bench guards Trey McKenney and Roddy Gayle Jr. (11.3 PPG apiece) both average double figures, as does Johnson (14.3 PPG); Gayle leads the team in steals with 1.2 per game, while Cadeau runs the offense with 5.9 assists to just 1.1 turnovers per night.

Villanova forward Duke Brennan might have his hands full trying to contest the paint with Johnson and Mara lurking. The Wildcats could try going small to counter that mismatch, but the 6-foot-9 Lendeborg takes more than half his shots from three and sinks 39 percent of them, a major mismatch on the outside reminiscent of Eric Dixon with Villanova last season. The Wildcats will need to pick their poison. Michigan’s size stands out at first glance, but they also have talented enough guards to roll out a small ball lineup.

Scouting the Wildcats

Villanova’s starting lineup contains Brennan (11.4 PPG) and Matt Hodge (11.3 PPG), both forwards, as well as guards Tyler Perkins (11.4 PPG), Acaden Lewis (12.8 PPG) and Bryce Lindsay (a team-high 18.1 PPG). Brennan leads the nation in rebounding, averaging 12.9 boards per game for a double-double, and picks up a team-high 0.6 blocks per game. Lewis, a true freshman, sets the pace in assists (5.8) and steals (1.4) while running the Wildcats’ offense. 

Lindsay takes more than half his shots from three and succeeds 49.1 percent of the time, although 9-of-14 and 5-of-6 outbursts against Sacred Heart and Penn skew those numbers. Perkins provides an excellent defensive presence, tying Lewis in steals in slightly less minutes, but also makes contributions away from the stat sheet as he negates the impact of opposing guards.

Hodge, similar to Lendeborg, is a 6-foot-8 mismatch capable of knocking down threes, although he’s still settling in during his first season in the lineup.

Point guard Devin Askew (6-foot-5) and wing Malachi Palmer (6-foot-6) are the first guards off the bench and provide a stabilizing veteran presence on defense, per head coach Kevin Willard, while 6-foot-9 reserve forward Tafara Gapare could see important minutes if the Wildcats try to counter Michigan’s bigger lineups.

One factor that could prove pivotal is three-point shooting. The Wildcats have shot hot and cold from beyond the arc this season, making just 10 of 35 attempts against BYU. They’re taking 46.4 percent of their shots from three this season at a 38 percent success rate, but a strong shooting performance could keep them around long enough to steal a win.