Villanova Football Preview: Astronomical Odds in Happy Valley

Villanova Football will face one of the toughest tests of any team in the nation when they take on the Nittany Lions on the road beginning at 3:30 p.m. on Saturday, Sept. 13. Penn State occupies the No. 2 rank in the nation; while the Wildcats hold the No. 11 rank, that only applies to the lower classification of Division I, the FCS.

As of the evening of Sept. 12, the point spread sat at -47.5 in the Nittany Lions favor, with an over under of 55.5: both odds courtesy of ESPN Sportsbook. ESPN and other sportsbooks like FanDuel turned off money line bets for the game, likely because of wildly lopsided odds. Their matchup predictor, on the other hand, gives Villanova just a one percent chance of winning.

Even for an FCS team of the Wildcats’ caliber, they’ll face overwhelming odds on the home turf of a team that made the national semifinals last season. Villanova Football holds a 3-6-1 record all-time against Penn State, with all but one of those games taking place between 1902 and 1951; the Wildcats lost 38-17 in 2021 during their most recent game against the Nittany Lions.

FS1 holds the broadcasting rights for this matchup.

Scouting the Wildcats

During their season opening win over Colgate, Villanova Football saw receiver Luke Colella cross the century mark, picking up 124 yards on five catches, while Lucas Kopecky came within a hair of doing so, hauling in five passes for 98 yards and a touchdown.

Graduate transfer quarterback Pat McQuaide stepped into the passing offense seamlessly, completing 18 of 28 passes (64.2 percent) for 299 yards and a touchdown. He also ran for a 28-yard touchdown on fourth down. The Wildcats’ rushing offense didn’t perform as expected, but McQuaide managed to cover for their struggles: Penn State will pose a much greater challenge.

Villanova’s defense managed one sack and three tackles for loss, allowing 117 rushing yards on 26 carries (4.3 yards per carry) and a 15-of-30 passing mark for Colgate quarterback Zach Osborne, who threw a pair of touchdowns. They managed to step up their game in the fourth quarter, allowing just one first down and forcing a pair of three-and-outs with the game on the line.

Scouting the Nittany Lions

Penn State’s offense runs through Heisman candidate Drew Allar, a 6-foot-5, 235 pound senior who has completed 41 of 59 passes for 417 yards and three touchdowns through two games this season. He hasn’t had to work much as the Nittany Lions dominated Nevada and FIU, their average margin of victory 34.5 points.

Allar also benefits from one of the best ground games in the nation in the form of running backs Kaytron Allen (24 carries for 187 yards and two touchdowns) and Nick Singleton (21 carries for 95 yards and three touchdowns). Through two games Penn State’s defense has racked up six sacks and a pair of interceptions.

Regardless of who has possession of the ball, expect them to try to establish the run game and burn away clock: Penn State is perfectly happy to play in a conservative fashion and keep their stars clean as they gear up for another playoff run, while shortening the game will give Villanova their best chance at a stunning upset.