Phillies vs. Marlins Preview: Odds and Pitching Matchup for Aug. 17

The Philadelphia Phillies will try for revenge against their National League East rival Miami Marlins at 6:40 p.m. on Monday, Aug. 17. The Marlins (64-61) swept the Phillies (67-58) in a three-game set in late July, and with both clubs fighting for their playoff lives, this matchup comes with more than just divisional bragging rights.

Now on a three game winning streak after sweeping the hapless Twins, the Phillies need to stack wins against a fellow NL club in order to move up in the Wild Card race. As per usual, NBC Sports Philadelphia will carry the broadcast for fans in and around the City of Brotherly Love.

Betting Odds

• Moneyline: Miami Marlins +207 / Philadelphia Phillies -251
• Run Line: Miami Marlins +1.5 (-105) / Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 (-115)
• Over/Under: 8 (Over -116 / Under -104)

Weather

Expect cloudy skies and temperatures in the mid-80s at first pitch. Humidity will climb from 70 percent to 80 percent as the game goes on, making for uncomfortable conditions, and a west-northwest crossbreeze between five and ten miles per hour won’t have an undue effect on fly balls.

Pitching Matchup

Left-hander Cristopher Sánchez (2.54 ERA, 155.2 innings pitched, 1.19 WHIP and 10.5 K/9) on the bump means that the Phillies are heavy favorites in front of their home crowd tonight. The Marlins have a dismal .170 batting average (9-for-53) against Sánchez with just two doubles and no homers, but they’ve managed to limit their swings and misses, fanning just 13 times (24.5 percent of the time). Heriberto Hernandez (3-for-8 with a double and a walk) and Otto Lopez (4-for-12) account for the vast majority of the damage against Sánchez; the rest of the Fish are a miserable 2-for-33 (.006) against him.

Miami will counter with righty Janson Junk (4.42 ERA, 87.2 innings pitched, 1.32 WHIP and 6.61 K/9), a solid option capable of forcing soft contact. The Phillies have a career .206 batting average (7-for-34) against Junk, with their lone extra base hits coming from Bryce Harper; he’s 3-for-5 with a homer and a double, while Brandon Marsh boasts a career 2-for-4 line.

Much like Sánchez and the Marlins, the rest of the Phillies have struggled mightily against Junk, going a combined 2-for-23 with nine strikeouts.

Props

Given both pitchers’ success in this matchup, the under is worth a look tonight, as are both Sánchez and Junk’s strikeout props. The Phillies have struggled at home this season, playing to a disappointing 32-30 record, but the Marlins are a dismal 26-36 away from South Florida.

Batters with a proven track record of success like Harper and Marsh bear watching for total base props, while pessimists could target those who have underperformed like Trea Turner (0-for-3 with two strikeouts) and Kyle Schwarber (0-for-5 with two strikeouts).