Phillies v. Braves Preview: Pitching Matchup and Props for Sept. 6

The Philadelphia Phillies will attempt to take a series lead against the Atlanta Braves at 1:10 p.m. on Sunday, Sept. 6 in a national broadcast on NBC. Philadelphia (80-62) tied the series with a 4-2 win the previous day and, as they currently sit just four games back of Atlanta (84-58) for the National League East, this game has major ramifications for the playoff picture.

The Phillies are slight home underdogs: Atlanta opened at -114 on the money line, while ESPN Analytics has the Braves winning in 53.5 percent of simulations. 

Weather grows milder by the day now that it’s September, with partly cloudy skies and a projected first pitch temperature of 77 degrees. The forecast high is 80, and humidity declining from 60 to 50 percent over the course of the game. Wind will blow in from the north at six miles per hour, gusting up to 11 mph.

Philadelphia will send righty Aaron Nola (4.93 ERA, 148 innings pitched, 1.40 WHIP and 9.55 K/9) to the mound. Despite the shabby line, Nola pitched to a 2.65 ERA in August and will try to continue that surge. The Braves will counter with right-hander Tyler Mahle (4.25 ERA, 125 innings pitched, 1.29 WHIP and 8.71 K/9).

Pitching Matchup

The Phillies have slashed .257/.327/.337 against Mahle over 100 career at-bats, hitting plenty of singles without driving the ball. Mahle likes to pitch around Kyle Schwarber (6-for-20 with two homers and eight walks), making him a solid prop pick to get on base; Luis Arraez (3-for-8 with a double) and Bryce Harper (4-for-12 with a double) have the only other extra base hits.

Trea Turner (8-for-19) and J.T. Realmuto (3-for-8) also see Mahle well, but the rest of the Phillies’ lineup has an ugly 2-for-33 mark against him, providing plenty of opportunities to wriggle out of trouble.

The Braves are slashing .291/.344/.552 as a team against Nola, slugging 22 home runs in 388 at-bats. Nola manages a strikeout in 24.6 percent of plate appearances, a tick below his career average, and Atlanta’s ability to hit for power could chase him from the game early… impacting strikeout props.

Ronald Acuña Jr. holds a career 21-for-60 mark against Nola with six doubles and four homers; he’s a player to watch after Phillies’ ace Zack Wheeler called him out for his home run trot on Saturday night. Austin Riley (23-for-66 with five doubles and six homers) is another player to watch for those looking to bet on the Braves.