Phillies vs. Braves Preview: Pitching Matchup and Props for Sept. 5

The Philadelphia Phillies will try to gain ground in the National League East race when they host the Atlanta Braves at 6:05 p.m. on Saturday, Sept. 5. Philadelphia (79-62) dropped a 5-2 decision to the Braves (84-57) last night, with Orion Kerkering giving up a late home run that crushed the Phillies’ hopes of a comeback.

Expect a first pitch temperature of 80 degrees and humidity climbing from 50 percent to 70 percent as the game goes on. A five to 12 mile per hour wind out of the north could knock fly balls down short of the wall, but it’s not a direct headwind since Citizens Bank Park faces northeast. As per usual, NBC Sports Philadelphia holds the broadcasting rights for this critical division clash, the second of six games these two teams will play in September.

The Atlanta Braves will send veteran left-hander Martín Pérez (3.05 ERA, 121 innings pitched, 1.22 WHIP and 6.77 K/9) to the mound; the Philadelphia Phillies will counter with reliable righty Zack Wheeler (3.31 ERA, 130.1 innings pitched, 1.09 WHIP and 10.63 K/9). Wheeler struggled mightily during August, his ERA for the month ballooning to 6.26; Pérez is on a heater, putting up a 1.76 ERA during that same span.

Betting Odds

• Moneyline: Atlanta Braves +136 / Philadelphia Phillies -159
• Run Line: Atlanta Braves +1.5 (-157) / Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 (+130)
• Over/Under: 8 (Over -117 / Under -103)

Pitching Matchup

The Phillies lineup has a 37-for-124 (.298 batting average) career mark against Pérez, striking out 17.8 percent of the time. He’s managed to keep the ball out of the air, allowing just three home runs, but batters like Alec Bohm (8-for-20 with a homer and a walk), Trea Turner (5-for-17 with two doubles, a homer and a walk) and Bryan De La Cruz (4-for-6 with a double) all see the ball well against Pérez.

Lefties typically have more success against Pérez than righties, a boon for the Phillies’ southpaw-centric lineup, but Kyle Schwarber (2-for-13) and Luis Arraez (1-for-8 with a homer) have struggled. Wheeler, who has spent his entire career in the NL East, has a whopping 335 at-bats of experience against the Braves.

They’re hitting .227 with 19 doubles and 14 homers in that span. Ronald Acuña Jr. (13-for-56 with four doubles and four homers) and Ozzie Albies (11-for-57 with three doubles and three homers) run into the occasional pitch off Wheeler but don’t have a whole lot of success; ditto with Austin Riley (14-for-53 with eight doubles and a homer). The Braves strike out 29.4 percent of the time against Wheeler as a team, making his strikeout prop a solid pick.

Bohm’s success against Pérez and his recent hot streak make his total bases prop another factor to watch, and De La Cruz could be an X-factor if the Phillies decide to trot him out