Villanova Preview: Zuby Ejiofor, St. John’s Pose a Steep Challenge

Villanova Men’s Basketball will host St. John’s at Xfinity Mobile Arena beginning at 8 p.m. on Saturday, Jan. 17, a clash between the Big East’s current No. 2 and No. 3 seeds. The Wildcats (14-3, 5-1 Big East) have struggled defensively in recent games, while the Red Storm began the season as the conference favorite before a loaded out-of-conference schedule dropped them out of the Top 25.

St. John’s is starting to heat up, winning their last three Big East games, and ESPN Analytics simulations see them as a slight favorite over Villanova, giving the Red Storm a 50.7 percent chance of victory. DraftKings Sportsbook ranks the Wildcats as a +124 underdog, with the point spread set at -2.5 in the Red Storm’s favor and an over/under of 149.5.

Villanova ranks slightly above St. John’s in the NET rankings (No. 24 versus No. 27), while KenPom gives the visitors the advantage (No. 19 versus No. 26). As such, this ranks as a Quadrant 1 opportunity for both teams. The Red Storm rank in the top 30 in both offensive (No. 28) and defensive (No. 21) efficiency according to KenPom; Villanova checks in at No. 21 and No. 40.

Peacock holds the telecasting rights to this matchup, an opportunity for Villanova to pick up their strongest win this season and strengthen their hold on the conference’s No. 2 seed.

Scouting the Red Storm

St. John’s went with a starting lineup of guards Ian Jackson and Oziyah Sellers and forwards Dillon Mitchell, Bryce Hopkins and Zuby Ejiofor their last time out against Marquette. Ejiofor, a 6-foot-9 senior, leads the team in all five major statistical categories: points (16.2 per game), rebounds (7.5), assists (3.1), steals (1.4) and blocks (2.1).

Hopkins (13.2 PPG), Sellers (11.7 PPG) and Jackson (10.7 PPG) all average double figures. The Red Storm excel at forcing turnovers, with an average of 15.29 per game, the 28th-best mark in the country. They play at a rapid pace, with an adjusted tempo of 70.7 possessions per game according to KenPom; Villanova, in comparison, averages just 63.4 possessions, the ninth-slowest mark in the country.

The Wildcats did an excellent job of slowing down Providence on the road earlier this week, and they’ll need to replicate that performance against the Red Storm. St. John’s knows how to shoot, making 46.6 percent of their shots from the field (35.8 percent from three). Opposing teams are converting on 35 percent of their threes against Villanova, putting them in the bottom third nationally, the biggest weakness in an otherwise strong unit.

St. John’s length, similarly, could prove a problem for the Wildcats. All five of their starters stand at least 6-foot-5, as does sixth man Joson Sanon (9.4 PPG). The Red Storm allow opposing offenses to sink just 31.7 percent of their threes, a major source of offense for the Wildcats.

Scouting Villanova

Villanova, meanwhile, goes with a starting lineup of point man Acaden Lewis, guards Bryce Lindsay and Tyler Perkins, wing Matt Hodge and big man Duke Brennan. The Wildcats specialize in small ball, with even the 6-foot-8 Hodge taking more than 65 percent of his shots from three; as a team, they attempt more than 45 percent of their shots from beyond the arc.

Lindsay leads the team in scoring with 15.2 PPG, although he’s averaged just seven points over his last three games. Brennan, the chief rim protector, stands 6-foot-10 and averages a double-double with 12.4 PPG and 10.7 rebounds per game; he also leads the team with an average of 0.6 blocks. 

Lewis, a true freshman, serves as the lead distributor, averaging 12.6 PPG and leading the team in assists (5.4) and steals (1.9). Hodge (10.6 PPG) and Perkins (11.4 PPG) also average in double figures, while sixth man Devin Askew provides a veteran presence on both sides of the ball and has starred off the bench in his last two games.

While St. John’s has a length advantage on Villanova, they can still match up against the Wildcats’ small ball lineups. They’re also deeper than the Wildcats, with nine players averaging more than ten minutes per game; only seven active members of Villanova’s roster hit that benchmark.

Villanova has the talent to take down St. John’s, but they’ll need to correct their recent defensive struggles to do so. The Wildcats managed to crack Seton Hall’s talented defense earlier this season, but the Pirates also have a far less talented offense than the Red Storm do.