Villanova Preview: De Facto Road Game Versus Wisconsin Badgers

Villanova Men’s Basketball will return to action at 8 p.m. on Friday, Dec. 19 when they take on the Wisconsin Badgers in the Milwaukee Hoops Showdown. The game will take place at Fiserv Forum, home of both the NBA’s Milwaukee Bucks and the Marquette Golden Eagles.

Despite an expected heavy home court advantage for the Badgers as they play in their home state, this game counts as a neutral site matchup, meaning it won’t carry as much of a metrics boost as a de jure road game would.

Even with that disadvantage in mind, the Wildcats (8-2) enter with almost even odds. ESPN Analytics gives them a 47.2 percent chance of pulling out a win, and FanDuel Sportsbook lists Villanova as a 4.5 point underdog. Their money line odds of victory sit at +184, with the over/under set at 150.5.

Prior to the NET Rankings updating on Friday, Dec. 19, the Wildcats held the No. 36 spot; the Badgers landed at No. 68. The KenPom ratings like both teams better, including a dramatic jump for Wisconsin. Villanova sits at No. 34, while the Badgers rank No. 39.

FOX holds the telecasting rights to this game, the last before Villanova begins their Big East schedule.

Scouting the Badgers

Wisconsin is averaging 85.1 points per game. While their offensive efficiency actually ranks worse than that of Villanova, they play at a much faster tempo, which could force an adjustment out of the Wildcats: head coach Kevin Willard cited it as a challenge his young team faced early on in their Big 5 Championship win over Penn… and the Badgers have a lot more talent than the Quakers do.

Guards Nick Boyd (20.2 points per game) and John Blackwell (19.6 PPG) account for the majority of Wisconsin’s scoring; seven foot tall forward Nolan Winter (12.8 PPG, along with a team-high average of 9.4 rebounds and 1.1 blocks) is the only other Badger finishing in double figures.

Boyd serves as the lead distributor, averaging 3.4 assists per game; Blackwell paces the team with an average of 1.8 steals and is their chief threat from beyond the arc, making 41.1 percent of his threes (30 of 73). While Wisconsin’s defense grades out well, their fast tempo also means they give up an average of 75.4 points per game. Blowout losses at the hands of BYU — who Villanova held to 73 points — and Nebraska inflated those numbers.

Andrew Rohde (a 6-foot-6 guard) and Austin Rapp (6-foot-10) round out the starting lineup, although true freshman Aleksas Bieliauskas, also 6-foot-10, has started over Rapp in each of the past three games. Either way, that size matchup might prove problematic for a small-statured Villanova squad.

Wisconsin takes more than half their shots (329 of 642) from three but converts on just 33.1 percent of them. Those long rebounds could help the Wildcats even out their size disadvantage, or prove their undoing.

Scouting the Wildcats

Villanova, similarly, takes 47.5 percent of their shots from three, sinking them a healthier 36.8 percent of the time. Redshirt sophomore guard Bryce Lindsay leads the team in scoring with 17.2 points per game, and each of the other four starters, freshman point guard Acaden Lewis (12.4 PPG), 6-foot-10 senior forward Duke Brennan (12.1 PPG), 6-foot-8 wing Matt Hodge (10.1 PPG) and defensive savant Tyler Perkins (9.8 PPG) finish near or above the double-digit barrier.

Hodge, a redshirt freshman, takes 63.9 percent of his shots from three-point range but sinks just 32.7 percent of them.

Lewis, the No. 32 player on the ESPN Top 100 for his class, is already settling in as a passing guard, leading the team in passing (5.6 assists per game) and steals (1.4 per game). He also possesses a ferocious layup package, making him a highlight reel waiting to happen when driving to the basket.

Brennan ranks second in the nation with 11.7 rebounds per game, while bench forward Tafara Gapare leads the small-statured Wildcats with 0.9 blocks per game. Super senior point guard Devin Askew is Villanova’s sixth man, averaging 9.4 points, 1.9 assists and 1.1 steals off the bench. At 6-foot-5, his combination of size and experience provides a critical change of pace defensively.