Villanova Preview: ‘Cats Conclude MTE Against Dangerous Dukes

Villanova Men’s Basketball will play the final game in their Villanova Challenge multiple team event (MTE) on Saturday, Nov. 15, hosting the Duquesne Dukes at 8 p.m.

Both the Wildcats (2-1) and the Dukes (3-0) won their first two games in the MTE, so this matchup is for all the (out-of-conference) marbles. The Wildcats got some good injury news earlier in the week when freshman guard Chris Jeffrey, a key piece in their defensive efforts, returned to the lineup after missing a game with an ankle injury. Wing Zion Stanford continues to rehab an ankle injury of his own that could keep him from the court into December, while reserve forward Tafara Gapare has a foot injury that Willard joked about in his press conference following the Sacred Heart win, suggesting it isn’t serious.

ESPN Analytics simulations give the Wildcats a 90.6 percent chance of winning. They’re a -700 money line favorite at ESPN Bet, indicating 7 to 1 odds, while the point spread sits at -10.5 and the over/under at 150.5. Duquesne is averaging 87.3 points per game and allowing 74.7 (Villanova averages 84.7 and 68.3, respectively), so this game could turn into a barn burner. However, one of Duquesne’s games went to overtime, which inflates both averages. 

truTV holds the telecasting rights for this game, while Villanova Sports Radio Network has the call.

The Wildcats check in at No. 42 on the KenPom Ratings with the 49th-best offensive rating and the 43rd-best defensive rating; Duquesne ranks No. 109 with the 147th-best offense and 93rd-best defense. If the Dukes hold the course, this will turn into a Quad 3 matchup for Villanova once the NET Rankings come out in December.

Scouting the Wildcats

Sophomore guard Bryce Lindsay leads Villanova in scoring with 24.7 points per game, the eighth-best mark in the nation. Coming off the bench to begin the season, head coach Kevin Willard subbed Lindsay into the starting lineup after the BYU game. Last time out against Sacred Heart, Lindsay set a program record with nine three-point shots made. 

6-foot-10 forward Duke Brennan averages a double-double with 11.7 points and 15.3 rebounds per game, the latter of which leads the nation. He also leads Villanova in blocks with 0.3 per game: Gapare and Braden Pierce both average 0.5 blocks per game, but haven’t played a qualifying amount of minutes as they rotate in off the bench. 

Freshman point guard Acaden Lewis paces the team in assists with five per game and is one of five Wildcats to average double digit scoring: the other two are veteran point guard Devin Askew (10.7) and forward Matt Hodge (10.3).

Defensive specialist Tyler Perkins leads the Wildcats in steals with 2.0 per game. The Wildcats haven’t settled into a specific offensive style yet, hammering the Pioneers from three-point range in their last game after attacking the paint against Queens. Willard emphasized the team’s versatile nature during the preseason. This early in the season against mid-major teams, they have more freedom to try new things than they will once conference play begins.

Given that nearly half (84-of-187) of the Dukes’ shots come from three, this might turn into another small ball fest. 

Scouting the Dukes

Expect a starting lineup of guards Tarence Guinyard, Cam Crawford and Jimmie Williams, and forwards Jakub Necas and John Hugley IV out of Duquesne. Hugley, a sixth-year senior, stands 6-foot-11 and 270 pounds, a dominant player in the low post who leads the Dukes in scoring (19.7 points per game) and rebounds (9.0). He’s making 60 percent of his shots this seson and is also a threat to kick the ball outside, although with 2.7 assists and 2.7 turnovers, he’s done so to limited effect.

Guinyard (18.0 points and a team-high 6.3 assists and 2.3 steals per game) and Williams (10.0) also score in double figures, as does guard Maximus Edwards (10.0) coming off the bench. 

Edwards, Necas and 6-foot-9 forward David Dixon provide key defensive contributions; in just 19 minutes per night, Dixon logs a team-high 1.0 blocks.