Villanova Preview: Another Early Road Test Against Butler

Villanova Men’s Basketball will face another steep challenge in the Big East when they travel to face the Butler Bulldogs at 12 p.m. on Saturday, Jan. 3. While Butler finished ninth in the 11 team conference last season, they’re a sleeper NCAA Tournament pick this year after racing out to a 10-4 record that includes a win over current No. 21 Virginia.

The Bulldogs enter as a healthy home favorite according to some metrics, winning in 60.4 percent of ESPN Analytics’ simulations. FanDuel Sportsbook gives Villanova the advantage, however, listing them as a -120 money line favorite. A point spread of -1.5 indicates this game is close to a toss-up, and the over/under rests at 147.5.

The Wildcats occupy the No. 25 spot in the NET rankings and the No. 28 spot in the KenPom ratings, while Butler checks in at No. 45 and No. 48, respectively, making this a Quadrant 1 opportunity for Villanova. The Bulldogs’ offensive and defensive efficiency rank No. 50 and No. 70 according to KenPom, while their adjusted tempo ranks No. 69.

While Butler puts up 86.3 points per game, century mark outbursts against IU Indianapolis, NJIT and in a double-overtime win over Providence skew that average. Villanova plays much slower. Their adjusted tempo ranks No. 355, the eleventh-slowest mark in the nation, while their offense and defense check in at No. 40 and No. 35.

TNT holds the broadcasting rights to this matchup.

Scouting the Bulldogs

Gonzaga transfer Michael Ajayi (16.6 points, 12.3 rebounds and 2.9 assists per game) and three-year Bulldog Finley Bizjack (15.9 PPG) lead Butler’s offense. Ajayi is a 6-foot-7 forward who makes 51.4 percent of his shots from two-point range. He also ranks first in the nation in rebounding despite his relatively small size, setting up a showdown with Villanova big man Duke Brennan, whose 11.4 boards per game rank fifth. 

True freshman Azavier Robinson averages just 17.5 minutes per game but has made eight consecutive starts since prized transfer Jalen Jackson went down with a season-ending injury. Robinson leads the team in steals (1.6 per game) and adds 2.6 assists and 5.9 PPG in his limited time on the court. 6-foot-11 center Drayton Jones adds 7.6 PPG, 5.4 RPG and a team-high 1.4 blocks per game, again averaging just 20.4 minutes per game as the Bulldogs make full use of their bench.

6-foot-6 sophomore guard Jamie Kaiser Jr., who spent the 2023-24 season under Kevin Willard at Maryland and missed all of last year to injury, ranks third in scoring with 10.7 PPG and rounds out the starting lineup. 

The Bulldogs attempt 36.6 percent of their shots from three and convert 35.4 percent of the time; they outshoot their opponents 47 percent-43 percent from the field. All in all, this is a quality team that does most things well and excels on the glass, ranking No. 17 in the nation in rebounding (No. 58 defensive/No. 9 offensive). That could further slow Villanova’s pace as they remain in the area and try to prevent second-chance opportunities.

Scouting the Wildcats

Each of Villanova’s starters average in double figures, with Bryce Lindsay (16.8 PPG) leading the way. Brennan adds 11.8 PPG, averaging a double-double, while true freshman point guard Acaden Lewis runs the offense with 4.8 assists to just 1.6 turnovers per game. Lewis, who ranks second on the team in scoring with 12.0 PPG, also checks in first with an average of 1.7 steals.

6-foot-8 forward Matt Hodge, who averages 10.3 PPG, shoots like a much smaller player, taking 71 of his 110 shots from beyond the arc, He also leads the Wildcats with 0.7 blocks per game. Defensive stalwart Tyler Perkins (10.8 PPG) rounds out the starting lineup, and super senior Devin Askew (8.7 PPG) serves as the sixth man.

Villanova attempts 47.2 percent of their shots from three and lands 37.53 percent of them, the No. 46 mark nationally. After giving up points early and often to begin the season, the Wildcats have turned the corner defensively in recent games, helping them through the streaky spells one can expect from a young and three-point intensive team. 

After their win over DePaul, Willard said that long teams have given Villanova problems this season. Butler’s ability to cycle through forwards like Yohan Traore (6-foot-11, 17.1 MPG) and freshman Jack McCaffery (6-foot-9, 9.6 minutes per game) in addition to Ajayi and Jones could play a key role as Villanova tries to win their fifth game in a row. Wildcats’ reserve forward Tafara Gapare missed the past two games for an undisclosed reason, so seven foot tall redshirt freshman center Braden Pierce (6.8 minutes per game) might draw more playing time to spell Brennan.