Villanova Bracketology: March Dreams Continue to Dwindle

Villanova Men’s Basketball blew their third second half lead in the past four games on Monday, Jan. 20, squandering a win over Georgetown that looked all but assured. The Wildcats held a 97.3 percent chance of winning with less than three minutes to play before allowing a 9-0 run, eventually losing 64-63.

Before the game, Villanova’s chances of making the NCAA Tournament sat around 23.9 percent, a ten percent drop from the previous week. After the crushing loss, their odds have cratered down to 13.9 percent, per teamrankings.com. The Wildcats fell off the tournament bubble after blowing a late road lead against Xavier on Tuesday, Jan. 14, although a shaky win over Providence helped them tread water temporarily. With the loss to Georgetown, however, the downward spiral resumes.

As of Tuesday, Jan. 21, Villanova sits at No. 58 in the NET rankings, a five spot drop from before the start of play against Georgetown. They’re 0-4 in Quadrant 1 matchups, 3-1 in Quad 2, 3-2 in Quad 3 and 6-1 in Quad 4. The ever-changing makeup of the quadrant system has also hurt the Wildcats in recent weeks, as their formerly Quad 1 wins over UConn and Cincinnati dropped down to Quad 2 as those teams began to struggle. Even worse, backbreaking losses to St. Joseph’s and Columbia dropped down to Quad 3 and Quad 4, respectively, passively hurting Villanova’s tournament résumé.

They didn’t move in the KenPom ratings, which listed Villanova at No. 52 ahead of the Georgetown game.

The Wildcats’ next game looks like their toughest of the season yet, a road date with the No. 10 ranked Marquette Golden Eagles on Friday, Jan. 24, before they get a (perhaps much needed) week off heading into a Feb. 1 home match with Creighton.