Phillies vs. Diamondbacks Preview: Pitching Matchup and Props for Aug. 31

The Phillies have a chance to land a knockout blow in the National League Wild Card race when they travel to face the Arizona Diamondbacks at 9:40 p.m. on Monday, Aug. 31. Philadelphia (77-60) has a comfortable hold on the second wild card spot; Arizona (73-65) is one of their top challengers, so a strong result in this three game series could give the Fightins an insurmountable advantage as the final month of the regular season begins.

The Phillies have won four in a row and are 8-2 in their last ten games. Arizona is 6-4 in that same span. Temperatures should sit around 90 degrees at first pitch, so there’s a decent chance the Diamondbacks will leave the roof open at Chase Field. Humidity will range between 50 and 60 percent, a practical deluge in the desert, and a four to eight mile per hour cross breeze shouldn’t have too much of an effect on the north-south oriented ballpark.

Even with the late start, this is a game worth staying up for because of the postseason implications. NBC Sports Philadelphia carries the broadcast as per usual.

Betting Odds

• Moneyline: PHI -121 / DIA +103
• Run Line: PHI -1.5 (+140) / DIA +1.5 (-168)
• Over/Under: 8.5 (Over -102 / Under -119)

Pitching Matchup

The Diamondbacks will send right-hander Brandon Pfaadt (3.51 ERA, 105 innings pitched, 1.14 WHIP and 6.17 K/9). As his strikeout rate suggests, Pfaadt aims for groundball outs and weak contact. Veteran right-hander Aaron Nola (5.04 ERA, 143 innings pitched, 1.40 WHIP and 9.63 K/9) will take the bump for the visitors. His earned runs total is deceiving, as Nola has posted a 2.79 ERA since the calendar flipped to August, snapping a cold streak that dates back to last season. Even when he struggled, Nola retained his ability to make batters look silly.

The Phillies have a career .317 batting average (32-for-101) against Pfaadt with five homers and eight doubles. They strike out just under a quarter of the time, with 26 K’s in 107 plate appearances. Luis Arraez (13-for-24 with two doubles, a triple and a homer), Brandon Marsh (3-for-9 with two doubles) and J.T. Realmut0 (3-for-10 with a double and a homer) see the ball particularly well against Pfaadt. Arraez, in particular, is a player to watch on the prop market.

Bryce Harper (1-for-10 with a homer) has struggled, as has Kyle Schwarber (1-for-8 with a homer), but they’ve managed to retain their power. The Snakes are 29-for-120 (.242 batting average) against Nola, striking out roughly one-sixth of the time. That’s something to keep in mind when eyeing strikeout props. 35 of those at-bats come from veteran third baseman Nolan Arenado (7-for-35 with a double and a homer); the rest of the Diamondbacks actually see Nola better, but that’s partially a mark of how much he’s struggled since 2025. Despite conceding singles, Nola has allowed just two homers to Arizona’s roster.