Phillies vs. Blue Jays Preview: Odds, Pitching Matchup and Props for Aug. 9

The Phillies will try to avoid a sweep at the hands of the Toronto Blue Jays at 1:35 p.m. on Sunday, Aug. 9, sending  left-hander Jesús Luzardo to the mound against former American League Cy Young winner Shane Bieber. Bieber has struggled to find consistency this season since returning from right elbow inflammation, but he’s managed to find another gear recently.

Toronto won 7-5 in 11 innings last night, their bullpen outlasting that of the Phillies (62-56) after Jose Alvarado blew his save opportunity. As per usual, NBC Sports Philadelphia holds the telecasting rights for this matchup with the Blue Jays (56-62), one in which the Phillies are heavy favorites despite their struggles earlier in the series.

Betting Odds

• Moneyline: Blue Jays +173 / Phillies -195
• Run Line: Blue Jays +1.5 (-129) / Phillies -1.5 (+108)
• Over/Under: 8.5 (Over -107 / Under -113)

Weather

Temperatures will climb into the low-to-mid 90s as the game goes on, but this game should have much more bearable weather conditions than the Phillies’ recent matchups. Winds out of the west between six and 15 miles per hour will stir the air, while moderate humidity shouldn’t cause too many issues in this day game matchup.

Pitching Matchup

Bieber (5.11 ERA, 37 innings pitched, 1.68 WHIP and 6.81 K/9) has struggled with consistency over his past four starts, pitching 5.2 or more innings of one-run ball in three of those games. The other, a July 28 loss to Washington, saw him knocked out of the game in the first inning.

Luzardo (3.36 ERA, 136.2 innings pitched, 1.16 WHIP and 10.80 K/9) pitched eight scoreless innings his last time out, bouncing back from an abysmal start against the Marlins.

Phillies vs. Shane Bieber

Drawing on his time in the American League, Luis Arraez accounts for 31 of the Phillies’ 44 career at-bats against Bieber. He has nine hits, a double and a walk in that time, good for a .290 average; the rest of the Phillies’ lineup is batting 4-for-13, the lone homer coming from Bryan De La Cruz.

No one besides Arraez has stepped to the plate more than three times against Bieber. Edmundo Sosa boasts two hits in three at-bats, while Trea Turner has whiffed in each of his three previous plate appearances.

Props

Given the uncertainty regarding how the Phillies matchup against Bieber — and the right-hander’s up-and-down performance in recent weeks — Luzardo’s prop market is the safest bet. The Blue Jays have a career 12-for-39 (.308 batting average) mark against him, with a far more even distribution of at-bats. George Springer (2-for-10) and Myles Straw (4-for-11) know Luzardo best.

Springer has the Blue Jays lone homer against him, and their 28.2 K percentage bodes well for Luzardo’s over/under line of 6.5 strikeouts. Arraez’s total base prop is a solid bet given his extended body of work against Springer.

Tidbits

• Philadelphia has struggled to a 31-30 (.508) record at Citizens Bank Park this season.
• For total bettors, the under has cashed in 63.3% of Philadelphia’s games when they are an underdog, though the Phillies enter today’s contest as the favorite.
• Toronto carries positive momentum into the matchup, having won 7 of its last 10 games (.700).
• The Blue Jays hold a 28-31 record on the road this season.