Phillies v. Brewers Preview: Pitching Matchup and Props for Sept. 24

The Philadelphia Phillies (87-71) will try to take their series with the Milwaukee Brewers (99-59) and punch their playoff ticket on Thursday, Sept. 24, starting their rubber match at 6:05 p.m. on NBC Sports Philadelphia. Philadelphia currently holds the third and final Wild Card spot in the National League: they have the same record as the Cubs, but slot in to No. 3 on tiebreakers, while the San Diego Padres have a one game lead on the top spot. Arizona is three games back with four games to play, so the Phillies could clinch a playoff spot as soon as tonight.

The Phillies will send right-hander Andrew Painter (5.59 ERA, 120.2 innings pitched, 1.42 WHIP and 7.98 K/9) to the mound. Milwaukee will counter with righty Bryse Wilson (3.67 ERA, 34.1 innings pitched, 1.28 WHIP and 7.86 K/9), who spent time in the Phillies’ organization earlier this season and made one relief appearance. 

DraftKings has the Phillies as -120 favorites in this matchup, while ESPN Analytics sees the Brewers winning in 55.1 percent of simulations. The over/under is at 8.5, while the Phillies are -201 to cover the 1.5 run line. Given the uncertainty regarding this matchup, any prospective bettors should shop around to find the best odds. 

Expect temperatures in the mid-to-low 60s as October draws closer. Humidity will range between 60 and 67 percent, while wind gusts as high as 17 miles per hour out of the north-northeast could suppress offense.

Pitching Matchup

Painter got knocked around for five runs in five innings during his first career appearance against the Brewers in June, giving up a three-run homer to Jake Bauers after piggybacking off Tanner Banks. Milwaukee went 6-for-20 (.300 batting average) off Painter, walking and striking out three times apiece. Brice Turang added a double, the Brewers’ other extra base hit on the day.

Painter has looked like a different pitcher since getting recalled from Triple-A after the All-Star Break, pitching to a 3.58 ERA since July 31. He’s had some bumps in the road this month, getting knocked around against the Astros and the Mets, and Milwaukee will provide another challenge as he tries to finish his rookie season strong.

Philadelphia’s lineup has a .333 batting average against Wilson (16-for-48) over the course of his career. Bryce Harper (2-for-6 with two walks) and Kyle Schwarber (1-for-6 with a walk) have both cleared the fences; Trea Turner (3-for-4 with a double and a triple) is another strong candidate to rack up extra bases, while Philadelphia’s 13.2 K percentage means they’re a good bet to hit the under for Wilson’s strikeouts… especially if they can chase him from the game early.