Phillies vs. Braves Playoff Preview: Pitching Matchup and Props for Sept. 29

The Philadelphia Phillies will play the first game of their best-of-three playoff set with the Atlanta Braves at 2 p.m. on Tuesday, Sept. 29. Philadelphia went 2-4 in Atlanta this season and 4-9 overall against the Braves, who finished first in the National League East.

Understandably, Atlanta enters as a comfortable home favorite in this game, listed as high as -205 on the money line, but both teams stumbled to the finish in late September. The Phillies are 4-6 in their last ten games and didn’t clinch a playoff spot until the final game of the regular season after losing four in a row with a chance to clinch. Atlanta dropped four of their last six games with the division crown comfortably wrapped up.

Philadelphia will have lefty starter Jesús Luzardo (2.86 ERA, 179.2 innings pitched, 1.07 WHIP and 11.07 K/9) back after missing nearly three weeks with left shoulder inflammation: he pitched an inning against Tampa Bay in the regular season finale, and blanked the Braves in a complete game shutout on Labor Day during his last start. The Braves will counter with lefty Chris Sale (2.16 ERA, 162.2 innings pitched, 0.98 WHIP and 11.07 K/9), who has historically mowed through both left-handed batters and the Phillies’ lineup.

Expect temperatures in the low 80s and humidity south of 40 percent, both of which should make for beautiful fall weather. Three to six mile per hour winds out of the east, which shouldn’t have too much of an effect on offense at southeast-oriented Truist Park. NBC will hold the broadcasting rights as this series kicks off the 2026 postseason slate.

Betting Odds

• Moneyline: Philadelphia Phillies +159 / Atlanta Braves -194
• Run Line: Philadelphia Phillies +1.5 (-142) / Atlanta Braves -1.5 (+118)
• Over/Under: 6.5 (Over -122 / Under +101)

Pitching Matchup

The Phillies’ lineup holds a career 30-for-155 (.194 batting average) mark against Sale with just eight walks and three home runs. Alec Bohm (7-for-23 with a double and a homer) is one of the only Phillies to hit Sale with anything approaching regularity; Kyle Schwarber, who played with Sale on the Red Sox in 2021, is 5-for-25 but has run into a pair of home runs.

Bryce Harper is a miserable 2-for-21 with 11 strikeouts, and the Phillies fan more than one-third of the time against Sale historically. The absence of Luis Arraez (7-for-22 with two doubles), left off the Wild Card roster after turning his ankle over the weekend, will suppress Philadelphia’s bats.

On the bright side, Luzardo put up one of the best starts of his career the last time he faced Atlanta. The Braves are 34-for-179 (.190 batting average) all-time off Luzardo, managing just one home run. Mauricio Dubon (4-for-9 with a double) is their most consistent hitter against him; Ronald Acuña Jr. is 4-for-17, while Matt Olson (6-for-30) hasn’t done much outside of that one homer. Luzardo has 56 strikeouts to 12 walks against Atlanta’s lineup (29.32 percent) and racked up 12 K’s in his complete game shutout of them on Labor Day.

Given the pitching matchup, it’s no surprise that the over/under is as low as it is. Get ready for a nail-biting introduction to the 2026 postseason, and watch carefully for how Luzardo responds after sitting for nearly three weeks.