Phillies v. Brewers Preview: Pitching Matchup and Props for Sept. 23

The Philadelphia Phillies could punch their playoff ticket as soon as tonight with a combination of a win over the Brewers and an Arizona Diamondbacks loss.

Philadelphia (87-70) sits amidst a three-way tie in the NL Wild Card race: they, the Cubs and the Padres all have the same record, but the Phillies hold the second spot based on tiebreakers. With five games left in the regular season, they have plenty to play for against a Brewers (98-59) team that leads the league in wins. The Phillies won the first game of the series 4-6 with an eighth inning push; Game 2 will begin at 6:40 p.m. on Wednesday, Sept. 23, with lefty Aaron Nola (4.49 ERA, 168.1 innings pitched, 1.35 WHIP and 8.96 K/9) taking the mound against Brewers’ stud righty Logan Henderson (2.51 ERA, 93.1 innings pitched, 0.81 WHIP and 10.31 K/9).

Nola has been on fire since the start of August, pitching to a 2.47 ERA in that time. He’s had a good degree of success against this Brewers lineup over the course of his career, holding them to a .665 OPS, so there’s a solid chance he’ll be able to maintain his winning ways. The sportsbooks like Milwaukee, however, listing Philadelphia as a +120 home underdog. The over/under is at 7.5 in an expected premier pitching matchup, and the Phillies are -144 favorites to cover the usual run line of 1.5.

Expect temperatures in the mid-to-low 60s for tonight’s game. Humidity around 65 percent will make for gloomy conditions, and wind gusts up to 25 miles per hour out of the northeast could suppress offense in this matchup on NBC Sports Philadelphia.

Pitching Matchup

Nola has held the Brewers to a .235 batting average (35-of-149) with five homers, seven walks and 43 strikeouts (27.5 percent). Most of the experience in this matchup comes from Christian Yelich (11-for-41 with two doubles, a triple and a homer) and William Contreras (11-for-32 with two doubles and a homer); Garrett Mitchell, Gary Sánchez and Jackson Chourio have also taken Nola yard.

Henderson is in his first full season in the league and has just three at-bats of experience against the Phillies, holding Luis Arraez hitless. Lefties have slightly more power off him (10 homers in 213 at-bats, as opposed to four in 118 for righties) but also get less hits. That’s a promising sign for Philadelphia’s lefty-heavy lineup, but their tendency to swing and miss could prove problematic against Henderson, who fans lefties exactly one-third of the time.

Henderson allowed three runs in five innings his last time out against the Pirates, but has managed to bounce back from each bump in the road he’s faced this season.