Villanova Preview: Wildcats Face Track Meet at Xavier

Villanova Men’s Basketball will take on Xavier at 6:30 p.m. on Tuesday, Feb. 17, the only Big East program they have yet to face this season.

Riding a five game winning streak, the Wildcats (20-5, 11-3 Big East) have cemented themselves as an NCAA Tournament lock. The Musketeers have struggled in their first season under head coach Richard Pitino, playing to a 5-9 conference record, and have gone 1-2 with losses to UConn and St. John’s this month.

Villanova enters as a strong road favorite, winning in 72.4 percent of ESPN Analytics simulations. FanDuel Sportsbook lists the Wildcats as a -185 money line favorite, setting the point spread at -4.5 and the over/under at 151.5. Xavier holds the No. 96 spot in the NET rankings (Villanova checks in at No. 30), making this a Quadrant 2 opportunity for the Wildcats.

The Musketeers play with a fast tempo (No. 39 per KenPom); Villanova ranks No. 329, a clash of styles that could help Xavier stay in the game if the Wildcats are trying to melt away clock late. They’re making 36.3 percent of shots from three, giving them a chance to test the Wildcats’ shaky perimeter defense: 6-foot-10 forward Jovan Milicevic (49-of-115) and senior guard Malik Messina-Moore (42-of-120) both bear close watching from beyond the arc.

FS1 holds the broadcasting rights to this matchup.

Scouting the Musketeers

Xavier went with their typical starting lineup of Milicevic, Messina-Moore, senior forwards Filip Borovicanin (6-foot-9) and Tre Carroll (6-foot-8) along with sophomore guard All Wright their last time out against Marquette, a 96-88 win.

Carroll leads the team in points (18.0 per game) and blocks (1.3 per game); Borovicanin leads in rebounds (8.0 per game) and assists (4.4 per game), possessing a diverse skill set for a big man, while sixth man Roddie Anderson III contributes 10.6 points and a team-high 1.4 steals per game.

Despite their size, opposing teams outrebound the Musketeers 38.4-34.8 on average this season, a point to watch for the small-statured Wildcats. Along with Carroll and Anderson, Milicevic (11.7 PPG), Messina-Moore (10.7 PPG) and Borovicanin (10.1 PPG) all average in double digits. 

Pitino plays his starters heavily, with Isaiah Walker (15.6 minutes per game) and 6-foot-10 forward Anthony Robinson (11.2 minutes per game) the only other Musketeers besides Anderson to see major playing time. 

Xavier allows opposing teams to make 47 percent of their shots on the season, including a 54 percent success rate from two-point range. Villanova likes to pour it on from beyond the arc, but focusing on the paint could become a more successful game plan given this Musketeers squad’s tendencies.

Scouting Villanova

Wildcats head coach Kevin Willard typically goes with a starting lineup of point guard Acaden Lewis, guards Bryce Lindsay and Tyler Perkins, 6-foot-8 wing Matt Hodge and forward Duke Brennan. Lindsay saw his minutes dwindle dramatically against Creighton and is trying to work his way through a six week shooting slump, so sixth man Devin Askew and 6-foot-6 wing Malachi Palmer could see major minutes once again.

Watch for Palmer, a key member of the second unit who provides a strong two-way presence, to help account for the high-scoring Carroll: Hodge, who takes two-thirds of his shots from three, could also play an important role balancing out that perimeter mismatch.

Perkins (13.6 PPG) leads the team in scoring; Brennan averages a double-double with 12.4 points and 10.6 rebounds per game while Lewis (12.4 PPG), a true freshman, leads the team in assists (5.3 per game) and steals (2.0 per game). 

Hodge (9.4 PPG) leads Villanova with an average of 0.6 blocks per game, cycling down to guard the paint when Brennan and reserve center Braden Pierce aren’t on the court. This game may come down to tendencies: if the Wildcats can stick to their tempo and attack Xavier inside where they struggle, they’ll be well on the way to victory. If they try to get into a track meet or go through a slump from three, the Musketeers could surprise them.