Villanova Bracketology: No News is Bad News for Wildcats

Villanova Men’s Basketball continues to languish on the outskirts of the NCAA Tournament bubble, and with just one game to go in the regular season, they’re almost out of time to make their case for an at-large bid.

The Wildcats (18-12, 11-8 Big East) checked into the fourth and final spot in ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi’s “Next Four Out” category in his tournament bubble watch published on Monday, March 3. The equivalent of the No. 76 spot in the tournament’s field of 68, Villanova would be left on the outside looking in if the Big Dance began today, unable to secure an at-large bid.

Weighing Wildcats’ Scenarios

Right now, the Wildcats occupy the No. 51 spot in the NET rankings and the No. 54 slot in the KenPom ratings. As the sixth seed in the Big East, they’re in line to face either DePaul or Seton Hall in the first round of the conference tournament, teams with a combined four conference wins between them. While that should be an easy enough win, the Wildcats have displayed a maddening ability to lose virtual layups this season… and beating up on Big East bottom feeders won’t do much to impress the selection committee.

Win that, and they’ll advance to the quarterfinals against the No. 3 seed, likely to be Creighton, Marquette or UConn. Per teamrankings.com, 21 wins would give Villanova just a 3.7 percent chance of securing an at-large bid, while 22 wins — implying they defeat Georgetown in their regular season finale before advancing all the way to the conference championship game — would give them a 51.7 percent chance of sneaking into the tournament.

Even with a furious winning streak, it would go down to the wire.