Villanova a Slight Underdog Against Guard-Centric Utah State

Villanova Men’s Basketball will face Utah State in the first round of the NCAA Tournament and, although they drew a No. 8 seed to the Aggies’ No. 9, oddsmakers like Utah State to advance into the Round of 32. Perfect for a No. 8/No. 9 matchup, ESPN Analytics sees the game as a toss-up, the Wildcats (24-8) advancing in 48.4 percent of simulations. DraftKings Sportsbook sets the point spread at -1.5 in the Aggies’ favor, giving Villanova +114 money line odds of advancing.

The host site, San Diego State University’s Viejas Arena, gives Utah State a major advantage, nearly 2,000 miles closer to their campus than it is to the Main Line. Starting forward Matt Hodge going down with a season-ending ACL tear on Feb. 28 also hurts the Wildcats, but Utah State doesn’t have the overwhelming size advantage that some teams exploited against Villanova.

The Aggies’ preferred starting lineup consists of three guards and two forwards… but those forwards, 6-foot-9 freshman Adlan Elamin and 6-foot-10 senior Zach Keller play just 19.0 and 13.8 minutes per game, respectively. Utah State also rotates through forwards like Garry Clark (16.5 MPG) and Karson Templin (18.7 MPG), both 6-foot-9, so their ability to cycle through near-interchangeable options could wear Villanova down. Guards MJ Collins Jr. (17.6 PPG) and Mason Falslev (16.1 PPG) handle most of the scoring for the Aggies.

The defensive ability of their Villanova counterparts, Tyler Perkins and team steals leader Acaden Lewis, will go under the microscope as they attempt to balance each other out.

Who’s the Next Man Up?

After the Wildcats’ Big East Tournament loss to Georgetown, head coach Kevin Willard said that his team struggled when 6-foot-6 wing Malachi Palmer, tasked with playing the four, came out of the game; following the Selection Show on Sunday, March 15, he teased that he could try to play big men Duke Brennan and Braden Pierce at the same time in order to counteract any potential size discrepancy. Brennan leads the Wildcats in minutes played per game this season, and Willard has asked the 6-foot-10 senior to stand on his head at times against taller teams. That strategy hasn’t always worked, and Brennan isn’t a cure-all option, but he’s easily the X-factor for this game.

Utah State won their conference tournament this season and, although the Mountain West is going through a down year much like the Big East, their ability to win three games in three games — compared with Villanova, who flamed out against plucky No. 11 seed Georgetown — counts as a plus in their column and a strike in the Wildcats’.