Phillies v. Brewers Preview: Pitching Matchup and Props for Sept. 22

The Philadelphia Phillies have a four game lead on the third and final Wild Card spot in the National League with six games to play, and they’ll host the Milwaukee Brewers at 6:40 p.m. on Tuesday, Sept 22 with an eye on solidifying their postseason position.

The Phillies (86-70) also have room to move up: they’re one game behind the Cubs and Padres, tied for the top in the Wild Card race. Milwaukee (98-58) is safely atop the NL Central, so the Phillies will dodge presumptive Cy Young winner Jacob Misiorowski in this series. Instead, they’ll face righty Dustin May (4.61 ERA, 140.2 innings pitched, 1.32 WHIP and 8.77 K/9) and enter as comfortable home favorites. Philadelphia will send veteran right-hander Zack Wheeler (2.99 ERA, 150.1 innings pitched, 1.06 WHIP and 10.6 K/9) to the mound.

Expect gloomy weather in Philadelphia on the first night of fall, with a 35 percent chance of rain at 6 p.m. and temperatures in the low 60s. Humidity will hover around 80 percent, and an eight mile per hour breeze gusting up to 22 mph out of the northeast could knock fly balls out of the air well short of the wall. NBC Sports Philadelphia will carry the broadcast as the Fightins’ try to get closer to a postseason berth.

Betting Odds

• Moneyline: Milwaukee Brewers +117 / Philadelphia Phillies -139
• Run Line: Milwaukee Brewers +1.5 (-186) / Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 (+154)
• Over/Under: 7 (Over -126 / Under +104)

Pitching Matchup

May has struggled since joining the Brewers in a deadline trade from St. Louis, pitching to a 5.40 ERA over 31.2 innings since. While he’s been in the big leagues since 2019, May has dealt with a flurry of injuries in that time and has just six at-bats of experience against the Phillies. Luis Arraez is 1-for-3, Bryan De La Cruz is 0-for-1 with a walk, and Trea Turner is 0-for-2.

Given the dearth of data for this matchup, caution is advised… but May’s recent struggles provide something to go off. In four of eight starts with Milwaukee, he hasn’t made it past the fourth inning. Wheeler, on the other hand, has held the Brewers to a .190 batting average (19-of-100) with one homer, four walks and 31 strikeouts. Christian Yelich (8-for-30 with a homer) has the majority of Milwaukee’s experience against Wheeler, whose strikeout numbers make him a solid pick to hit the over.