Villanova Preview: Will the ‘Cats or Pirates Continue to Defy Expectations?

While a preseason coaches poll picked Villanova Men’s Basketball to finish seventh in the Big East, the Wildcats currently sit at No. 3 in the conference according to the KenPom and NET metric systems, both of which place them in the top 30 nationally. The Seton Hall Pirates, who Villanova (9-2) will travel to face in their conference opener at 7 p.m. on Tuesday, Dec. 23, have defied expectations in similar fashion, holding an 11-1 record after coaches picked them to finish last in the 11-team conference. 

As of the end of play on Dec. 22, Villanova held the No. 29 spot in the NET rankings and landed at No. 28 according to KenPom; Seton Hall checks in at No. 36 and No. 45, respectively.

Adding another layer of intrigue, this will mark head coach Kevin Willard’s return to Seton Hall, where he coached 12 seasons and led the Pirates to a 2016 Big East championship against Villanova; Pirates’ head coach Shaheen Holloway spent half a decade as an assistant under Willard.

Most projections give the Wildcats close to even odds of pulling out the win. ESPN analytics rated them as a slight favorite, winning in 50.1 percent of simulations; DraftKings ranks them as a +140 underdog with a razor-thin point spread of 2.5 and an over/under of 132.5.

That low scoring output derives from the strength of both defenses. Seton Hall allows just 62,1 points per game, the No. 7 mark nationally. Villanova is in a tie for No. 67, and they’ve taken major strides on that end of the court in recent weeks.

Peacock holds the broadcasting rights to this matchup between two resurgent programs.

Scouting the Pirates

Seton Hall plays with the No. 284 adjusted tempo according to KenPom, allowing them to shorten games and limit the amount of shots their opponents take. They’re also adept at ending opposing possessions, picking up 11.0 steals and 6.2 blocks per game. 

Junior guard Adam Clark, a Philadelphia native who led West Catholic to a state championship in 2023, leads the way with an average of 2.2 steals; 6-foot-10 freshman forward Najai Hines sets the pace with 2.5 blocks per game, needing an average of just 18.2 minutes played to reach that mark. Clark also leads the team in passing with 5.7 assists per game.

The Pirates don’t light up the stat sheet offensively, with AJ Staton-McCray (13.4 points per game), Tajuan Simpkins (11.8 PPG) and Clark (10.1 PPG) averaging double figures, but their tempo and defense means that sort of play isn’t necessary.

Expect small ball, as each of their top five players in minutes played are listed at forward: the tallest, senior Elijah Fisher, stands 6-foot-6. 6-foot-9 forward Stephon Payne III is a member of the starting lineup and leads the team with an average of 6.5 rebounds, but plays just 20 minutes per night. While they average more rebounds than their opponents, watch for how Villanova forward Duke Brennan matches up inside against Payne and Hines.

Opposing teams take 41.3 percent of their shots from three against the Pirates and convert on just 32.3 percent of them, and Seton Hall allows a miniscule 38.8 shooting percentage overall. The Pirates aren’t a very good three-point shooting team either, taking just 30.3 percent of shots from beyond the arc and converting 33.8 percent of the time.

Scouting the Wildcats

Villanova also prioritizes small ball with a starting lineup of guards Acaden Lewis, Bryce Lindsay and Tyler Perkins along with forwards Matt Hodge and Brennan. Hodge, named the Big East Freshman of the Week on Dec. 22, stands 6-foot-8 but takes 64.2 percent of his shots from three, playing like more of a wing on offense.

Lindsay leads the team in scoring with 16.7 PPG, and Brennan (12.2 PPG), Lewis (11.9 PPG), Perkins (10.6 PPG) and Hodge (10.5 PPG) all cross the ten point mark. 

Brennan’s 11.6 rebounds per game rank fourth in the nation. Lewis, a true freshman, leads the team with an average of 5.3 assists, and is also a threat on the fast break with 1.5 steals per game and a tremendous layup package.

Super senior Devin Askew serves as the sixth man, adding 9.2 PPG, while forward Tafara Gapare, the first big man off the bench, leads the team with 0.8 blocks in an average of 16.3 minutes. 

Villanova takes close to half their shots from three and makes 36.7 percent of them.