Villanova Preview: Three-Point Line Critical at No. 2 UConn

Villanova Men’s Basketball will play their third top ten opponent this season when they travel to face No. 2 UConn at 12:30 p.m. on Saturday, Jan. 24.

The Huskies (18-1, 8-0 Big East) hold national championship aspirations once again this season, and they’ve won their last 14 games in a row. They’ve struggled in recent weeks, going to overtime against Providence before nail-biters against Seton Hall and Georgetown, but remain heavy favorites against Villanova (15-4, 6-2 Big East). FOX holds the broadcasting rights to this matchup.

ESPN Analytics simulations see the Huskies winning in 80.9 percent of simulations. The Wildcats’ money line odds sit at +470, a little better than one-in-five chances, according to DraftKings’ Sportsbook, while the point spread rests at 10.5 points and the over/under at 136.5. UConn checks in at No. 8 in the NET rankings and No. 11 in the KenPom ratings, making this a Quadrant 1 matchup for Villanova, who rank No. 33 and No. 26, respectively.

Expect a slow-paced matchup, as both UConn (No. 303) and the Wildcats (No. 353) rank in the bottom 60 nationally in adjusted tempo according to KenPom. The Huskies’ calling card is their defense (No. 5 per KenPom), and they’re holding opponents to just 27.5 percent shooting on threes, the No. 6 mark in the nation. That might prove a major problem for the Wildcats, who take 45.1 percent of their shots from beyond the arc.

Scouting the Huskies

When UConn last took the court (Jan. 17 at Georgetown) they went with a starting lineup of center Tarris Reed Jr., guards Braylon Mullins, Silas Demary Jr. and Solo Ball, and forward and program mainstay Alex Karaban. Reed, Ball and Karaban are all in at least their second season with the Huskies, a level of experience that might hurt this young Villanova team.

Each of the five averages in double figures, with Reed (14.5 PPG) leading the way. DeMary (10.2 PPG) serves as the lead distributor, averaging 6.1 assists and 1.8 steals, while Karaban (13.6 PPG) paces the team in rebounds (5.3 per game). Backup center Eric Reibe, a 7-foot-1 freshman, averages 16.2 minutes per game and leads the team with an average of 1.1 blocks.

Ball and Mullins, another freshman, average 14.1 PPG and 11.6 PPG, respectively. 

UConn is making 34.7 percent of their shots from three this season, with Karaban (37-of-88) and Mullins (27-of-74) their chief threats from deep; defending from long range has proved problematic for an otherwise strong Wildcats’ defense. The Huskies have struggled to rebound this season, with head coach Dan Hurley criticizing their performance on the glass.

Hurley praised Villanova forward Duke Brennan in his typical colorful fashion, calling him an ‘ass-kicker’ during a pregame media session on Friday, Jan. 23: if Brennan can gain an advantage inside against players like Reed and Reibe, that could give the Wildcats a critical advantage.

Scouting Villanova

The Wildcats, meanwhile, go with a starting lineup of guards Acaden Lewis (12.3 PPG), Bryce Lindsay (14.7 PPG) and Tyler Perkins (12.3 PPG) along with Brennan (12.1 PPG) and fellow forward Matt Hodge (9.8 PPG). Lewis, a true freshman, serves as the lead guard, averaging 5.2 assists and 1.9 steals per game.

Brennan averages a double-double, his 10.6 rebounds per game ranking No. 9 in the nation. Lindsay, the leading scorer, has struggled to reach double figures in recent games, as has Hodge (the team leader in blocks with 0.6), who stands 6-foot-8 but takes nearly two-thirds of his shots from three. Perkins plays excellent defense and, as the only Wildcat with at least a season of experience in the Big East, he’s provided a critical physical presence on both ends of the court as Villanova’s young players adjust to the rigors of conference play.

Sixth man Devin Askew (9.8 PPG), similarly, has stepped up for the Wildcats in recent games, clearing the 20-point barrier against Providence and St. John’s. Playing in his sixth year of college basketball, Askew’s experience might prove pivotal as Villanova tries for the upset.