Villanova Preview: Road-Weary Creighton’s Stout 3-Point Defense

Villanova Men’s Basketball will attempt to push their Big East win streak to four when they host the Creighton Blue Jays at 7:30 p.m. on Wednesday, Jan. 7. Creighton (9-6, 3-1 Big East) swept the season series against the Wildcats (12-2, 3-0 Big East) last year, snatching a 60-58 win on a go-ahead three with 5.8 seconds remaining at the former Wells Fargo Center.

A trendy tournament pick to begin the season and last year’s Big East runner-up, the Blue Jays have struggled mightily away from home, going 1-3 on the road and 1-2 in neutral site matchups, but they remain a difficult opponent. They currently hold the No. 53 spot in the NET rankings and the No. 44 spot in the KenPom ratings, making this a Quadrant 2 matchup. Villanova checks in at No. 18 and No. 22, respectively, narrowly missing this week’s AP poll.

ESPN Analytics simulations see the Wildcats winning 70 percent of the time. They’re a healthy -278 favorite on DraftKings, indicative of 2.78 to 1 odds, with the point spread set at -6.5 and an over/under of 142.5. KenPom rates the Blue Jays’ defensive efficiency (No. 42) better than that of their offense (No. 64) and, like the Wildcats, they play at a relatively slow tempo (No. 233).

Peacock, the subscription streaming service, holds the broadcasting rights for this Big East matchup.

Scouting the Blue Jays

Creighton will play without two year starter Jason McAndrew, who stands 6-foot-10 and went down with a season-ending injury in November. In their last second loss at Seton Hall on Jan. 4, the Blue Jays’ starting five consisted of Ty Davis, Josh Dix, Austin Swartz, Jason Green and Isaac Traudt. Dix leads the team in scoring and steals with 12.0 points per game and 1.0 swipes.

Green, who stands 6-foot-8, averages 10.4 points and a team-high 5.4 rebounds: the Blue Jays aren’t particularly good on the glass, ranking No. 124 nationally in boards per game. Villanova actually ranks worse, but has an advantage in offensive rebounds (No. 67 to No. 242).

Bench guard Nik Graves adds 25.2 minutes, 9.5 points and a team-high 3.6 assists per game, while reserve forward Owen Freeman adds 1.0 blocks, 7.1 points and 4.8 rebounds in just 14.4 minutes per night.

Creighton has attempted 447 of their 908 total shots (49.2 percent) from beyond the arc, landing 34.5 percent of them. Dix, Swartz, Graves and Traudt (who stands 6-foot-10) have attempted the majority of those shots, but expect to see any of the Blue Jays pull up from three. Swartz is their best shooter, converting 33 of his 83 attempts.

Opposing teams take less than one-third of their shots from three against Creighton and convert at a measly 32.8 percent, while they sink 42.5 percent of their total shots.

Scouting the Wildcats

Villanova opts for a starting lineup of Bryce Lindsay, Duke Brennan, Acaden Lewis, Tyler Perkins and Matt Hodge when healthy. Lindsay, who plays the 2, leads the team in scoring with 16.9 points per game, while Lewis, a true freshman point guard, takes the lead in assists (4.9) and steals (1.9) along with 12.0 PPG. Brennan averages a double-double with 12.0 points and 11.3 assists, while Hodge, who stands 6-foot-8, averages 0.6 blocks and 10.8 points.

Hodge, despite his height, takes most of his shots from three (77 of 119) and makes 33.8 percent of them, a number that should continue to improve as the redshirt freshmen learns how to use his size to his advantage on the perimeter as well as inside. Perkins provides an excellent defensive presence and puts up 10.9 PPG, while Devin Askew, the first guard off the bench, averages 8.6.

Since an injury to freshman Chris Jeffrey and forward Tafara Gapare’s departure from the program, Villanova has rolled with a three-man bench, also substituting in wing Malachi Palmer and center Braden Pierce. As a team, the Wildcats take 46.4 percent of shots from beyond the arc, so their ability to crack Creighton’s perimeter defense or adapt if the threes aren’t falling might prove pivotal.

Villanova needed a strong second half to win each of their last two games, so watch how they play out of the gate.