Villanova Preview: Can Wildcats Avenge Tournament Upset?

Villanova Men’s Basketball will try to stretch their winning streak to five games when they host the Old Dominion Monarchs at 7 p.m. on Tuesday, Nov. 25. This marks the first meeting between the Wildcats and the Monarchs since 1995, when Old Dominion upset Villanova in the No. 14/No. 3 matchup in the first round of the NCAA Tournament, a game that went through three overtime periods.

Just as in that game, Villanova (4-1) enters as a heavy favorite. ESPN Analytics sees the Wildcats winning in 96.2 percent of simulations: they’re overwhelming -7500 favorites on the money line at ESPN Bet, indicating 75 to 1 odds, with the point spread set at 20.5 points and an over/under of 145.5. 

The Monarchs (2-3) lost at Drexel their last time out and hold the No. 224 spot in the KenPom Ratings, making this a likely Quadrant 4 matchup when the NET rankings begin to come out in December. KenPom lists them with the 198th-best offensive efficiency and the 262nd-best defensive efficiency. Villanova, currently holding the No. 39 spot in KenPom after six days off, checks in at No. 49 and No. 40, respectively, their defense actually rated better than their offense in spite of head coach Kevin Willard’s dissatisfaction with their performance on that end of the court. Subscription service ESPN+ holds the broadcasting rights for this matchup as part of their new deal with the Big East conference.

Scouting the Monarchs

Old Dominion might play without their leading scorer, senior guard KC Shaw, who averages 14.2 points per game but wasn’t available during their last two games. He last played at Xavier on Nov. 18. 

Fellow senior guard LJ Thomas (13.4 PPG) is their second-leading scorer and holds the team high in assists (3.9 per game) and steals (1.6 per game). Another guard, Jordan Battle, is their third scorer averaging double digits with 10.6 PPG. Although he’s only 6-foot-2, Battle leads the team in rebounds with 6.0 per game as seven of the Monarchs’ top nine players and all of the top four (including Shaw) in terms of minutes played are guards.

Seven foot tall forward Caelum Swanton-Rodger leads the team in blocks with 1.1 per game. While the Monarchs have some mid-sized guards like Robert Davis Jr. and Scottie Hubbard, both 6-foot-6, this might mark a rare matchup where Villanova has the size advantage. That might suggest a small-ball approach from the Monarchs, but Old Dominion attempts just 37.3 percent of their shots from three and converts at a 32.7 percent clip.

Scouting the Wildcats

Four of Villanova’s five starters average in double figures. Sophomore guard Bryce Lindsay puts up 20.4 PPG, the 39th-best mark in the nation; forward Matt Hodge (12.6 PPG), point guard Acaden Lewis (12.2 PPG) and big man Duke Brennan (10.2 PPG) are the other three. Brennan, who leads the nation with 14.4 rebounds per game, appeared to roll his ankle during the Wildcats’ Nov. 19 win at La Salle but attempted to stay in the game after doing so, so with a six day layoff between games he could have healed sufficiently since then.

Lewis paces Villanova in assists (5.4 per game), starter and defensive guru Tyler Perkins leads them in steals (1.6 per game) while Brennan sets the team-high in blocks (0.4). Willard has tinkered with his lineups in recent games, working players like Zion Stanford, recently returned from injury, back up to game speed. If the Wildcats manage to pull comfortably ahead, expect plenty of tin.