Villanova Metrics: Bracketologists Split On Tournament Seed

Villanova Men’s Basketball defeated the Butler Bulldogs 82-73 on Wednesday, Feb. 25, building a double digit lead at the half and thwarting a comeback bid that cut their advantage to 55-54.

The win lands in Quadrant 3 for the Wildcats (22-6, 13-4 Big East); Butler currently holds the No. 79 spot in the NET rankings, and if they climb into the top 75 it’ll jump up to Quadrant 2. Their Jan. 3 road win over the Bulldogs, similarly, would move up to Quad 1.

Villanova, for their part, holds the No. 30 spot in the NET rankings and the No. 28 spot in the KenPom ratings. They’re a tournament lock most likely to pick up a No. 7 seed (29.7 percent odds per teamrankings.com) but could easily move up to a No. 6 seed (26.7 percent). Joe Lunardi agrees with that assessment, but Bart Torvik sees them as a No. 8 seed.

23 wins is the threshold they need to hit to guarantee an at-large bid, and with games against struggling teams like DePaul and Xavier — as well as a favorable matchup in the second round of the Big East Tournament, where they’ve secured a bye — anything short of a complete collapse will punch their ticket.

Their next game, a road duel with No. 15 St. John’s on Saturday, Feb. 28, will give Villanova one of their last remaining chances at a quality win and a corresponding boost in the tournament field. The Wildcats fell 86-79 at home against the Red Storm in January, their deficit as high as 17 points before a late scoring push.