Phillies vs. Twins Preview: Odds, Pitching Matchup and Props for Aug. 15

After their one-off Field of Dreams game on Aug. 13, the Philadelphia Phillies will continue their road series with the Minnesota Twins at 7:10 p.m. on Saturday, Aug. 15. While the interleague matchup has less of an effect on the playoff field, the Phillies (65-58) have struggled mightily since the All-Star Break and are behind the Arizona Diamondbacks for the third and final Wild Card spot.

With a 5-5 record over their past ten games, the Phillies need positive momentum anywhere they can find it. The Twins (60-63), 4-6 over that same stretch, provide as good an opportunity as any to turn things around. As per usual, NBC Sports Philadelphia holds the broadcasting rights for this matchup.

Betting Odds

• Moneyline: Philadelphia Phillies -149 / Minnesota Twins +128
• Run Line: Philadelphia Phillies +1.5 (-137) / Minnesota Twins -1.5 (+113)
• Over/Under: 8 (Over -116 / Under -104)

Weather

Despite their northern location, the Twins play in the open air. Cloudy skies are expected tonight, with a 30 percent chance of rain roughly an hour into the matchup, climbing toward 50 percent as the evening wears on. With .2 inches of rain expected today, there’s a solid chance of a delay. First pitch temperatures should sit around 82 degrees, with humidity increasing steadily from 75 percent. Wind between 7 and 12 miles per hour out of the south-southwest could help the ball carry over the fences.

Pitching Matchup

Lefties Jesús Luzardo (3.32 ERA, 143.2 innings pitched, 1.14 WHIP and 11.03 K/9) and Connor Prielipp (4.79 ERA, 82.2 innings pitched, 1.32 WHIP and 9.58 K/9) will face off in this matchup. Prielipp, a rookie, has yet to face the Phillies; reserve outfielder Derek Hill, who began the season with the White Sox, is the only Philadelphia batter with experience against him, going 0-for-4 with a pair of strikeouts.

Luzardo, on the other hand, has held the Twins to a 6-of-25 (.240 batting average) clip over the course of his career, the vast majority of his track record coming against former NL East bat Josh Bell (3-for-12 with two doubles and a homer). The Twins strike out 36 percent of the time against Luzardo, who ranks sixth in the big leagues in strikeouts this season, but only four of their batters have stepped to the plate against him, making for plenty of uncertainty for both lineups.

Props

Luzardo’s strikeout prop sits at 6.5… and given that he’s averaging more than 7 per start this season, that’s an excellent place to start. Prielipp’s ERA isn’t great, but he has solid reverse splits, boasting a .222 batting average and 1.14 WHIP against right-handers as opposed to a .314 average and a 1.89 WHIP against his fellow southpaws.

As such, targeting traditional right-on-left matchups probably isn’t the play, especially without much of a data set. Lefties like Luis Arraez, Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber likely provide the best value. The Phillies are road warriors this season, carrying a 33-28 (.541) record into Target Field, while the Twins hold an ugly 28-34 record at home.