Phillies Face Twins in the Field of Dreams: Preview, Odds, and Pitching Matchup

MLB’s Field of Dreams Game is back after a four year hiatus, and the Philadelphia Phillies will take part at 7:30 p.m. on Thursday, Aug. 13, kicking off a three-game road slate against the Minnesota Twins with a one-off game in Dyersville, Iowa. The Phillies (64-58) dropped two of three games against the St. Louis Cardinals to kick off this road trip, falling 7-1 their last time out. They’ve struggled since the All-Star Break, posting a 5-5 record over their past ten games.

Minnesota (60-62) holds a 4-6 record over the same stretch, and both teams are fighting for their playoff lives. The Phillies will send struggling right-hander Aaron Nola to the mound, a potential point of concern in this marquee matchup: while the Iowa cornfield actually boasts slightly bigger dimensions than Citizens Bank Park, there’s always a chance — and there will certainly be complaints — about the potential for juiced balls during a primetime matchup broadcast on Netflix.

Betting Odds

• Moneyline: Philadelphia Phillies -102 / Minnesota Twins -114
• Run Line: Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 (+157) / Minnesota Twins 1.5 (-191)
• Over/Under: 8.5 (Over -117 / Under -104)

Weather

Expect soggy conditions tonight, with the chance of rain sitting around 65 percent at first pitch: rain is expected earlier in the day too, and humidity will climb north of 85 percent as the game goes on. Wind will blow from east to west, with a 10 mile per hour breeze and gusts up to 21 miles per hour.

Pitching Matchup

The Twins will counter Nola (5.47 ERA, 125 innings pitched, 1.45 WHIP, 9.29 K/9) with right-hander Taj Bradley (3.76 ERA, 131.2 innings pitched, 1.25 WHIP and 10.12 K/9). The inaugural Field of Dreams game in 2021 saw eight home runs; Nola has struggled to keep the ball in the yard, allowing more than two homers per nine innings; nobody cleared the fences the following year, however, so don’t hedge your bets on the long ball.

Bradley, 25, has spent the entirety of his four-year career in the American League, so he’s had limited opportunities against the Phillies’ bats. Bryce Harper has two doubles in three at-bats, Trea Turner is 1-for-3 with a homer, and Kyle Schwarber has a homer and a walk in two plate appearances. Together they account for the vast majority of the Fightins’ damage against Bradley. As a team, they’re 6-of-20 (.300 batting average) with an OPS north of 1.000.

The Twins have a career .145 batting average (10-for-69) against Nola, but he’s struggled mightily over the past two seasons. Power hitter Josh Bell has three home runs and a double against Nola, but even when he runs into one, his 8-for-41 (.195 batting average) career mark is well below average.

Props

With a varying track record for how the ball flies in the Field of Dreams venue, live prop betting could be the most effective strategy in this matchup: if it looks like a boombox early, keep an eye on power hitters like Schwarber and Bell to leave the yard.

Bryce Harper and Trea Turner are solid bets for total bases props, while Aaron Nola’s strikeout line of 5.5 depends more on how long he can remain in the game than whether he can get the Twins to swing and miss. Luis Arraez’s total bases, as always, are worth monitoring, but he’s struggled since joining the Phillies.

Tidbits

• Despite the Phillies leaning heavily toward the Under this season when playing away (56.7% Under), their last 10 games have featured a higher-scoring pace, with the Over hitting 60.0% of the time.
• Playing as the designated road team tonight and for this series, Philadelphia maintains a slightly winning road record this season, going 32-28 straight up (0.533 Win Percentage).
• The Twins have a 32.28 home record this season… but this isn’t your average home game.