Phillies vs. Marlins: Game Preview, Odds, and Pitching Matchup for July 28

The Philadelphia Phillies need to bounce back tonight as they continue their NL East series against the Miami Marlins at loanDepot park in Miami at 6:40 p.m. on July 28. A stoppable force meets a movable object in this series: the Phillies (57-50) hold a 1-5 record over their last six games, while the Marlins (53-54) snapped a 12-game losing streak in the series opener, chasing Zack Wheeler from the game early before walking it off against typically-reliable closer Jhoan Duran.

Despite ten hits and a Bryce Harper home run, Philadelphia surrendered three runs in the bottom of the ninth inning. The win marked Miami’s first since before the All-Star Break; as per usual, NBC Sports Philadelphia holds the telecasting rights as the Phillies try to bounce back.

Betting Odds

• Moneyline: Philadelphia Phillies -106 / Miami Marlins -113
• Run Line: Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 (+161) / Miami Marlins +1.5 (-195)
• Over/Under: 8 (Over -119 / Under -101)

Weather

Temperatures are forecast in the high-80s to start, but the Marlins’ retractable roof will keep out the worst of the South Florida summer with a slight chance of rain.

Pitching Matchup

The Marlins will send former Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara (4.01 ERA, 6.89 SO/9) to the mound. Even though he’s endured plenty of bumps since Tommy John surgery wiped out his 2024 season, Alcantara leads his team with 143.2 innings pitched and an ERA a hair better than the league average.

Phillies’ starter Aaron Nola, similarly, hasn’t looked like himself this season, pitching to a bloated 5.82 ERA over 108.1 innings. While he’s still able to miss bats, averaging 9.30 strikeouts per nine innings, opposing hitters are able to drive most of the pitches they can get ahold of: his 2.08 home runs and 10.05 hits allowed per nine innings are both career highs. The Marlins’ lineup boasts a 12-for-37 (.324 batting average) career mark against Nola, but just one home run in that span. If he can maintain that trend, the Phillies have a strong chance at victory.

Phillies vs. Sandy Alcantara

The Philadelphia Phillies’ lineup brings a wealth of experience against Miami’s Sandy Alcantara, and several core bats have enjoyed notable success against him. Bryce Harper has been a particular thorn in Alcantara’s side, boasting a .326 average with three homers and four doubles across 46 at-bats.

Alec Bohm has also feasted in this matchup, pacing the regular starters with a stellar .371 AVG and eight RBI in 35 at-bats. Meanwhile, J.T. Realmuto (.308 AVG, two home runs, seven RBI in 39 AB) and Trea Turner (.386 AVG, two home runs in 44 AB) have consistently found their way on base. However, not all Philadelphia hitters have solved Alcantara. Lefty slugger Kyle Schwarber has also been largely kept in check, hitting .238 with zero home runs and just two RBI in 42 at-bats.

Props

Aaron Nola’s strikeout total is set at 5.5 for tonight’s contest, with the over offering appealing plus-money value at +124… if you trust him to stay in the game long enough to hit that mark.

At the plate, Bryce Harper’s track record against Sandy Alcantara makes him a prime target for bettors. Harper sits at +123 to go over 1.5 total bases; for those seeking a bigger payout, he offers +447 odds to hit his fourth career home run off Alcantara or a member of the Marlins’ bullpen. Alec Bohm has historically peppered Alcantara and provides great value at +144 to eclipse 1.5 total bases. Finally, if you are backing Philadelphia’s power, Kyle Schwarber is the consensus favorite to go deep tonight, priced at +240 to launch a home run despite his struggles against Alcantara.

Tidbits

• The Philadelphia Phillies have struggled to produce upsets this season, holding just an 8-20 (.286) outright record when listed as the betting underdog.
• The under has been a highly profitable play in Phillies underdog spots, cashing in 64.3% of those contests.
• Despite their overall underdog struggles, Philadelphia has been a reliable road team, boasting a 29-23 (.558) outright record away from home with the under hitting at a 59.6% clip in those matchups.
• The Miami Marlins enter tonight in a severe slump, going just 1-12 over their last 13 games.
• The Marlins have historically taken care of business when expected to win, putting together a 35-24 record as the betting favorite this season.