Phillies vs. Braves Preview: Pitching Matchup and Props for Sept. 4

The Philadelphia Phillies are four games behind the Atlanta Braves for the lead spot in the National League East, and they have a chance to close that gap with 22 games remaining. They’ll play six games against Atlanta (83-57) in September, the first of them beginning at 6:40 p.m. on Friday, Sept. 4. The red-hot Phillies (79-61) have won 15 of their last 18 games; Atlanta holds an 8-2 record over their past ten, so both of these teams are on fire.

It’s a beautiful day for baseball in the City of Brotherly Love, with an expected temperature of 83 degrees at first pitch. Humidity will sit somewhere between 65 and 80 percent, creeping up as the game goes on, while a six mile per hour cross breeze (and gusts up to 13 miles per hour) out of the northwest shouldn’t affect output at the plate. As per usual, NBC Sports Philadelphia holds the broadcasting rights.

Betting Odds

• Moneyline: Atlanta Braves -103 / Philadelphia Phillies -114
• Run Line: Atlanta Braves -1.5 (+164) / Philadelphia Phillies 1.5 (-200)
• Over/Under: 6.5 (Over -120 / Under -101)

Pitching Matchup

Both teams can call on their best in this matchup, with the Braves sending 2024 Cy Young winner Chris Sale (2.06 ERA, 144 innings pitched, 1.00 WHIP and 11.06 K/9) to the mound against Phillies ace Cristopher Sánchez (2.52 ERA, 175.1 innings pitched, 1.19 WHIP and 10.37 K/9). The Braves enjoy a high degree of success against Sánchez, slashing .328/.366/.507 with six homer runs in 134 at-bats.

Ozzie Albies (8-for-15 with two doubles) tees off, as do Austin Riley (6-for-12 with a homer) and Lane Thomas (8-for-14 with two doubles and a homer); Thomas hasn’t played since Aug. 29, so his availability could prove pivotal. Sánchez finishes with a strikeout in 23.9 percent of his duels with the Braves’ current lineup, well below his usual rate… and given Atlanta’s success against him, his ability to hit the over for strikeouts might be in trouble.

Sale enjoys much more success against the Phillies, holding them to a .214 batting average (28-for-131) with four doubles and two homers. Trea Turner (6-for-19 with two doubles and a homer), Alec Bohm (5-for-18) and Kyle Schwarber (5-for-19 with a triple and two homers) all have modest success against Sale. Bryce Harper and J.T. Realmuto (both 2-for-15) struggle mightily, and the Phillies strike out in 31.6 percent of battles with Sale overall.

Pessimists can bet on Braves’ standouts like Albies, Thomas, Riley and Sale to continue their success; those Phillies who do manage to see Sale well also deserve consideration.