Phillies vs. Braves Preview: Pitching Matchup and Props for Sept. 12

The Philadelphia Phillies will try to tie their road series with the Atlanta Braves beginning at 7:15 p.m. on Saturday, Sept. 11. The Phillies (82-66) lost 6-5 in 11 innings in the series opener, a game that went on until 11 p.m. because of a rain delay. Tonight’s game could provide an extra challenge, with expected starter Jesús Luzardo scratched due to shoulder soreness; typical spot starter Alan Rangel pitched on Sept. 10, so the Phillies may need to scramble to find a starter. The Braves (87-61) will counter with right-hander Tyler Mahle (4.05 ERA, 131 innings pitched, 1.27 WHIP, 8.52 K/9).

This game and this series are the Phillies’ last, best chance to gain ground on Atlanta in the National League East race: they sit five games back with 14 games remaining. NBC Sports Philadelphia will carry the broadcast for this high-stakes matchup.

Cloudy skies are expected in Atlanta, with a first pitch temperature around 80 degrees and oppressive humidity north of 80 percent. Three to six mile per hour winds out of the south-southwest shouldn’t have too much of an impact on how the ball flies at southeast-oriented Truist Park.

Betting Odds

• Moneyline: Philadelphia Phillies -102 / Atlanta Braves -118
• Run Line: Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 (+158) / Atlanta Braves 1.5 (-191)
• Over/Under: 7.5 (Over -116 / Under -105)

Pitching Matchup

Mahle pitched six innings against the Phillies on Sept. 6: while they scratched across two runs, they both came via error. The Phillies lineup has 30 hits in 123 at-bats (.244 batting average) against Mahle, managing just two home runs.

Both of them are from Kyle Schwarber (6-of-22 with nine walks), who Mahle likes to pitch around. Luis Arraez (4-for-10 with a double) and Trea Turner (9-for-22 with a double) both see the ball well from Mahle. Bryce Harper (4-for-15 with a double) is another potential contributor, but there are plenty of holes in the lineup that Mahle has historical success exploiting. With 29 strikeouts in 135 plate appearances (21.5 percent) against Mahle, expect plenty of soft contact.

With the Phillies’ starting pitcher unannounced as of 12 p.m., exercise caution with any related bets.