Phillies vs. Braves Playoff Preview: Pitching Matchup and Props for Sept. 30

The Philadelphia Phillies will try to keep their season alive in Game 2 of their National League Wild Card series with the Atlanta Braves, sending Cristopher Sánchez (2.91 ERA, 207 innings pitched, 1.20 WHIP and 10.04 K/9) to the mound at 2 p.m. Atlanta will turn to right-hander Tyler Mahle (3.99 ERA, 149 innings pitched, 1.23 WHIP and 8.5 K/9). After dropping the first game of the series 5-3 on a three-run homer from Austin Riley, the Phillies face elimination in this best-of-three series on NBC.

Expect another beautiful fall day in Atlanta, with partly cloudy skies and temperatures in the mid-80s. Humidity will burn off to around 40 percent in the afternoon, and six to ten mile per hour winds out of the southeast could help keep the ball inside the fences.

Betting Odds

• Moneyline: Philadelphia Phillies -117 / Atlanta Braves -102
• Run Line: Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 (+154) / Atlanta Braves 1.5 (-186)
• Over/Under: 7 (Over -115 / Under -105)

Pitching Matchup

Mahle’s been on a heater since joining Atlanta from the San Francisco Giants, pitching to a 1.99 ERA over his past nine starts. Sánchez started to waver late in the year, posting a 5.12 ERA in the month of September, but he put up seven innings of two-run ball his last time out and pitched a quality start against the Braves at the start of the month.

Mahle faced the Phillies twice over the last month of the season, picking up a pair of wins and allowing just one earned run (two unearned) over 13 innings pitched. Historically, the Phillies are batting .237 (32-for-135) off him with three home runs, 12 walks and 32 strikeouts. Bryce Harper (5-for-18 with a double and a homer) and Kyle Schwarber (6-for-25 with two homers and nine walks) have both managed to drive the ball off the right-hander; Trea Turner (10-for-25) and J.T. Realmuto (5-for-10) get on base at a healthy clip, but the other six spots in the Phillies’ lineup are just 6-for-57 (.105 batting average), so they’ll need someone else to step up in order to keep their season alive.

The Braves have a history of teeing off Sánchez, going 41-for-138 (.297 batting average) with 38 strikeouts, but he’s managed to limit the damage to just four home runs. Matt Olson (6-for-23 with two doubles and two homers), Ronald Acuña Jr. (6-for-16 with a double and a homer) and Austin Riley (7-for-15 with a homer) are all potential troublemakers, as is Ozzie Albies (9-for-18 with three doubles).

Those eyeing prop bets like strikeout or base totals should keep in mind that all hands will be on deck for an elimination game, and pitchers could get the hook at the first sign of trouble.