Phillies vs. Mets Preview: Pitching Matchup and Props for Sept. 17

The Philadelphia Phillies are off to Queens, where they’ll face the Mets at 7:15 p.m. on Thursday, Sept. 17 for the first of a four-game clash as the regular season winds down.

Philadelphia (84-68) holds the second Wild Card spot in the National League with ten games to play: they’re half a game behind the Chicago Cubs for the top spot, have one game of cushion over the Padres, the final team in the playoff field, and 3.5 games over the Diamondbacks, the next closest challenger. The Phillies are also 4.5 games behind the Braves for the top spot in the NL East, so there’s an outside shot they could claim the division crown… but they’d need quite a bit of help for that to happen.

The Mets (69-83) are in last place in the NL East and have lost four in a row. FOX holds the broadcasting rights for this rivalry matchup; there’s a threat of rain in the late innings, with a 30 percent chance after 9 p.m.  Expect cloudy skies and temperatures in the high-to-mid 70s; humidity north of 75 percent will make for a sticky night at the ballpark, and a breeze out of the south will range between five and 13 miles per hour, rising and falling as the game goes on. With Citi Field oriented to the north-northeast, that could help generate some offense.

Betting Odds

• Moneyline: PHI +115 / MET -137
• Run Line: PHI +1.5 (-182) / MET -1.5 (+151)
• Over/Under: 8 (Over -114 / Under -106)

Pitching Matchup

The Mets will send Nolan McLean (3.24 ERA, 166.2 innings pitched, 1.18 WHIP and 9.94 K/9) to the mound. The young righty has been a revelation for New York in his second big league season, and he’s also done an excellent job against these Phillies, holding them to a .146 batting average (7-for-48) with a Trea Turner (1-for-6) double and no home runs.

Four walks, two from Kyle Schwarber (0-for-7) have helped the Phillies get some runners aboard, and Alec Bohm (3-for-5) has the most success against McLean in limited appearances. As a team, however, they’re striking out nearly 29 percent of the time, so this might be a good game to bet on the opposition. McLean got knocked around for five runs in five innings against the Yankees his last time out, but he’s been steady for much of the rest of the year.

Philadelphia will counter with lefty Aaron Nola (4.69 ERA, 161.1 innings pitched, 1.37 WHIP and 9.20 K/9), who has played his best baseball in two years since the calendar flipped to August, posting an ERA well south of 3.00 for each of the past two months. These Mets have had modest success against Nola, hitting .249 (47-for-189) with 13 home runs. Francisco Alvarez (5-for-10 with three homers) and Juan Soto (13-for-46 with three doubles and five homers) are two major names to watch. Bo Bichette (4-for-16 with a homer) is another threat, while Nola has historically gotten the better of Francisco Lindor (8-for-44 despite two doubles and a homer).

Nola has 49 strikeouts in just under 220 plate appearances against this Mets lineup, a hair below his typical strikeout rate… something to keep in mind when viewing the prop market.