Villanova Preview: Wildcats Travel to Plucky Providence

Villanova Men’s Basketball will continue their Big East slate at Providence, tipping off against the Friars at 6:30 p.m. on Tuesday, Jan. 13.

The Wildcats (13-3, 4-1 Big East) are learning to adjust to the challenges of conference play, blowing a second half lead against Creighton before gutting out a last minute win over Marquette. There are no ‘gimme’ games in the Big East and, although Villanova enters as a -148 favorite on the road, they’ll still need a 40-minute effort to take down the Friars (8-8, 1-4 Big East). Providence took down St. John’s at Madison Square Garden on Jan. 3 before taking No. 4 UConn to overtime on Jan. 7, so prepare for a dogfight. 

DraftKings sets the point spread at -2.5 and the over/under at 158.5; ESPN Analytics simulations see the Wildcats bringing home a win 54.1 percent of the time.

Villanova and Providence check in at No. 29 and No. 86 in the NET rankings, making this a Quadrant 2 matchup for the Wildcats. KenPom rates both teams higher, at No. 24 and No. 67, respectively. The Friars boast the No. 36 offensive efficiency, hence the high-scoring over/under, while their defense lags behind at No. 147; their adjusted tempo sits at a rapid 72.9 possessions per game, the nation’s 16th-highest.

Here’s who to watch for in this matchup, set for broadcast on FS1.

Scouting the Friars

Providence started three guards, Jason Edwards, Jaylin Sellers and Corey Floyd Jr. along with forwards Duncan Powell and Oswin Erhunmwunse their last time out against Xavier. 

Edwards leads them in points (17.2 per game) and assists (3.3 per game), while Erhunmwunse, who stands 6-foot-10, cleans up in rebounds (7.1) and blocks (2.7).

6-foot-7 freshman guard Stefan Vaaks leads the team in minutes (29.6) and has bounced in and out of the starting lineup. He also leads the team in steals (1.1 per game), using that lengthy frame to his advantage. Sellers (15.4 PPG), Vaaks (13.8 PPG) and bench forward Jamier Jones (10.9 PPG) all average in double figures, giving Villanova a range of players they’ll need to account for defensively.

The Friars take 41.6 percent of their shots from three-point range and convert 35.6 percent of the time. They’re much steadier inside the arc, where they make 56 percent of their shots. They have a solid defense, allowing just 43 percent of their opponents’ shots to fall, but they allow a 37.9 percent success rate from three-point range (No. 350) and their opponents average 68 shots per game. Villanova, in comparison, allows an average of 57.25 shots.

Scouting the Wildcats

Villanova rolls with a starting lineup of Acaden Lewis, Bryce Lindsay, Tyler Perkins, Matt Hodge and Duke Brennan. Lewis (13.0 PPG), who landed on the Big East honor roll for his performance last week, is a true freshman who leads the team in assists (5.2) and steals (1.9). Lindsay leads the team in scoring (15.6 PPG) but has struggled in his last two games, averaging just 6.5 points; Brennan averages a double-double with 12.3 points and 10.9 rebounds, the latter the seventh-best mark in the country.

Hodge (10.6 PPG), who stands 6-foot-8 but takes most of his shots from beyond the arc, leads the team with an average of 0.6 blocks per game. Perkins puts up 11.2 PPG and provides a key defensive presence. The Wildcats attempt 45.6 percent of their shots from three and convert on 36.1 percent of them, a potential angle for them to punish the Friars. On the other hand, they’ve struggled against teams with length, so players like Vaaks and Erhunmwunse could pose a problem.

Other key contributors include sixth man Devin Askew, a super senior who can hold his own on both ends of the court, center Braden Pierce, the only other true big man besides Brennan, and wing Malachi Palmer.