Villanova Preview: ‘Cats Face Turnover-Hungry No. 4 Tarleton State

Villanova Football will go on the road to face the No. 4 Tarleton State Texans (Stephenville, Texas) at 12 p.m. on Saturday, Dec. 13, attempting to keep their season alive in the quarterfinal round of the FCS playoffs. This will mark the No. 12 seeded Wildcats’ first game outside the Eastern Time Zone this season.

Villanova defeated No. 5 seed Lehigh on the road last week, gutting out a 14-7 win with two second half touchdowns. Now they’ll need to do it again against the most prolific team in the FCS in terms of turnovers forced: 38 on the season, an average of 2.92 per game.

Villanova excels at protecting the football, losing an FCS-best five turnovers; the Texans are right behind them with eight, good for No. 4. Wildcats head coach Mark Ferrante praised Tarleton State during his weekly media appearance, saying their athleticism leapt off the page as he conducted his initial film review — a trait that correlates well with forcing other teams to make mistakes.

Luckily for Villanova, one of the Texans’ lone weaknesses plays right into their hands: rushing defense. Tarleton State allowed 2,127 rushing yards per game this season, an average of 163.6. If the Wildcats’ talented stable of running backs can get going, they have a chance to take control of the game and keep the football out of harm’s way.

Despite that mismatch, oddsmakers give the Wildcats a roughly 30 percent chance of escaping with a win. FanDuel Sportsbook lists them as a +330 underdog on the money line, sets the point spread at -12.5 in the Texans’ favor and predicts an over/under of 53.5. 

Here are the players to watch in a game that will take place on ESPN.

Scouting the Texans

Senior quarterback Victor Gabalis leads Tarleton State’s offense with 2,687 yards and 28 touchdowns on 175-of-293 passing, doing an excellent job of protecting the football with just five interceptions thrown. He does a good job of spreading the ball around, with three targets (Peyton Kramer, Cody Jackson and Trevon West) logging more than 700 yards on the season.

Kramer leads the field with 50 catches for 920 yards and seven touchdowns.

The Texans have a similar ground game to Villanova, with three running backs splitting carries at a close to even rate. Tre Page III (112 carries for 839 yards and seven touchdowns) leads the pack in yardage, but James Paige (96 carries for 520 yards and eight touchdowns) and Caleb Lewis (127 carries for 465 yards and nine touchdowns) see similar usage rates. 

Page underwent surgery in early November and Paige last played on Nov. 15, so the Wildcats may only need to face Lewis. 

Senior defensive back Kasyus Kurns leads the Texans with six interceptions. Linebackers Ty Rawls and Omar Emmons (who also has three forced fumbles) both have three apiece, giving Tarleton playmakers at every level. Defensive lineman Angelo Anderson leads the team with 9.5 sacks and five forced fumbles, while linebacker Yasir Holmes adds eight sacks and 13 tackles for loss.

Villanova will have their hands full trying to stay in front of the chains and remaining turnover free.

Scouting the Wildcats

Villanova, like Tarleton State, has three talented tailbacks… but they’re also dealing with injuries like the Texans are. No. 1 running back David Avit last played on Nov. 8 at Towson. The Wildcats remain optimistic that he has a chance to return at some point this season, so there’s a chance he plays on Saturday, but it’s far from guaranteed.

In Avit’s stead, short yardage back Isaiah Ragland (154 carries for 672 yards and two touchdowns) and speedster Ja’briel Mace (99 carries for 736 yards and ten touchdowns) have both acquitted themselves well. Mace has two more touchdowns apiece via receiving and kick returns, but he’s also struggled to hold onto the football at times, something to watch against the Texans’ playmakers.

Quarterback Pat McQuaide does an excellent job of playing clean football, completing 208 of 338 passes (61.5 percent) for 2,744 yards, 23 touchdowns and just five interceptions. His top target, Luke Colella, has 68 catches for 942 yards and eight touchdowns, although he’s had success throwing to down-ballot options like Braden Reed and tight end Antonio Johnson in recent weeks.

Key defenders include linebacker Shane Hartzell (15 tackles for loss, eight sacks, 87 total tackles) and defensive backs Zahmir Dawud (10 pass breakups) and Anthony Hawkins (eight pass breakups). Athletic defensive linemen like Ugo Nwotite, Turner Inge and Obinna Nwobodo have helped Villanova win in the trenches in recent weeks.

Kicking is another factor to keep an eye on: Jack Barnum has made just 13 of 22 kicks this season, including a 3-of-9 clip beyond 40 yards.