Villanova Preview: Can the ‘Cats Learn from Shaky Win at Providence?

Villanova Men’s Basketball will return to action against Providence at 7 p.m. on Friday, Jan. 30 after nearly a week to digest their overtime loss at No. 2 UConn.

The Wildcats (15-5, 6-3 Big East) defeated the Friars (9-12, 2-8 Big East) 88-82 on the road on Jan. 13. Although Providence has displayed plenty of fight since then, losing their last three games by a combined nine points (including a road game against the Huskies), head coach Kim English’s seat is on fire as they’ve slumped into last place in the conference.

Villanova enters play as a -410 favorite on the money line according to DraftKings Sportsbook. The point spread sits at -8.5 points, and the over/under rests at 156.5 after both teams poured it on in their previous matchup. ESPN Analytics simulations see the Wildcats winning 78.6 percent of the time, but they’ll still need to gut it out against one of the nation’s best offenses (No. 25 in scoring efficiency, per KenPom).

The Wildcats enter play at No. 35 in the NET rankings and No. 27 in the KenPom ratings; Providence rests at No. 89 and No. 72, respectively, making this a Quadrant 3 matchup for Villanova. FS1 holds the broadcasting rights for this game.

Scouting the Friars

Providence’s leading scorer, guard Jason Edwards, has missed their last five games due to a foot injury (including the Villanova game). Averaging 17.2 points per game, his continued absence has played a major role in the Friars’ struggles. Big East programs are mandated to produce pregame injury reports three hours before listed start times, so Edwards’ availability is something to keep a close eye on. Edwards also leads the Friars in assists and steals.

In his absence, they’ve gone with a lineup of forwards Oswin Erhunmwunse and Jamier Jones, 6-foot-7 guard Stefan Vaaks, and senior guards Corey Floyd Jr. and Jaylin Sellers. Despite their size, Villanova won on the glass 34-27 their last time out. Erhunmwunse leads the Friars in rebounds (8.0 per game) and blocks (2.7 per game) despite averaging just 23.9 minutes.

Sellers (16.1 PPG), Vaaks (15.1 PPG) and Jones (12.8 PPG) all cleared 20 points the last time these teams played; three-point shooting (a still-respectable 8-of-25) was the Friars’ only real offensive weakness as they scored 42 points in the paint. Size has posed a problem for the Wildcats in recent weeks, so their ability to take care of business against a struggling yet capable team like Providence could mark a step in the right direction.

Scouting the Wildcats

Villanova big man Duke Brennan (12.3 PPG) played through a thigh injury against UConn, another situation to watch given his importance to the Wildcats’ defense: he leads the team in rebounds (10.7 per game) and blocks (0.6 per game). Beyond Brennan, they typically go with a starting lineup of guards Acaden Lewis (11.9 PPG), Bryce Lindsay (14.2 PPG) and Tyler Perkins (12.5 PPG), with 6-foot-8 Matt Hodge (10 PPG) adding his presence on the wing.

Lewis leads the team in assists (5.2 per game) and steals (1.9 per game), capable of creating offense even when his shots aren’t falling. He and Lindsay went a combined 1-for-21 against the Huskies, but Lewis picked up his own slack with five assists.

Both smaller-statured guards, they’ve struggled to make shots since conference play began in earnest, forcing Villanova to turn to other sources of offense like sixth man Devin Askew (10 PPG). Askew led the team in scoring off the bench at Providence; Perkins, similarly, has seen his offensive role tick up in recent weeks. The Wildcats like to pour it on from three, taking close to half their shots from beyond the arc and converting 36.3 percent of the time.

They’ve also struggled to defend the three-point line but can control the game with their slow offensive tempo (No. 352 of 365 Division I teams). Providence, playing with the 16th-fastest tempo, managed to speed the Wildcats up their last time around, combining for 120 shots taken and another 23 possessions wiped out due to turnovers. While Villanova still managed to emerge victorious, their ability to set the terms of play could prove critical once again.