Villanova Football: Was Regression to the Mean a Given?

Villanova Football made a name for themselves as the Cardiac ‘Cats during the 2025 season, winning 11 straight games on their way to the FCS Semifinals after starting the season at 1-2. That streak included nail-biters against William & Mary, Elon and Stony Brook that came down to the final drive as well as tight playoff games on the road against Lehigh and Tarleton State.

Through five games this season, Villanova (2-3, 1-2 Patriot League) has played four one-score games. After winning all of them last year, they’re 2-2 in those scenarios this season. On average, teams win the one-score games they play about 50 percent of the time, but the ability to do so is notoriously fickle from year to year. A high rate in one year, like Villanova’s 5-0 record last season, is likely to regress to the mean the following year, which is what’s happened to the Wildcats so far.

Their struggles taking care of the football — quarterback Pat McQuaide has seven touchdowns and five interceptions this season after throwing 24 and four, respectively, last season — also has a role in Villanova’s regression. McQuaide took time to warm up in 2025 as well, throwing just three touchdowns through the first five weeks of the season: this year’s offseason, where he was limited in practice as Villanova petitioned the NCAA for another year of eligibility, likely didn’t help.

Now that they’re on the edge of the top 25 and will likely fall out of the poll as a result of their loss to Cornell on Sept. 26, the Wildcats will need another winning streak in order to feel confident about a playoff spot. Whether they can get back to their success in tight games or if they’re doomed to regress remains to be seen.