Phillies vs. Orioles Aug. 1 Preview: Pitching Matchup, Player Props, and Betting Trends

The  Phillies will try to tie their interleague series with the Orioles starting at 7:05 p.m. on Saturday, Aug. 1 at Camden Yards. Currently nursing a four game losing streak, the Phillies (57-52) are 2-8 over their last ten games and drifting dangerously close to .500 baseball.

After six strong innings from rookie Andrew Painter, the Phillies’ bullpen blew it again in a 6-4 loss the previous night.

Baltimore (53-56) is 5-5 over their past ten games, staying within reach of a playoff spot without making decisive movement one way or another; the Phillies have a one game lead on the last wild card spot in the National League. As per usual, tonight’s action will take place on NBC Sports Philadelphia.

Betting Odds

• Moneyline: Phillies (-149), Orioles (+123)
• Over/Under: 8 runs
• Run Line: Phillies -1.5

Weather

Expect muggy conditions around first pitch with temperatures hovering at 84 degrees and humidity around 60 percent. Wind will pick up in the evening with a 10 mile per hour breeze to the north; gusts up to 20 miles per hour could generate some offense.

Pitching Matchup

The Orioles will send right-hander Shane Baz (3.98 ERA, 122 innings pitched, 7.89 K/9) to the mound against Phillies left-hander Cristopher Sánchez (2.73 ERA, 138.2 innings pitched, 10.19 K/9). Famed as a power pitcher early in his career, Baz’s velo has ticked down since breaking into the rotation full-time.

Phillies vs. Shane Baz

Phillies’ batters Trea Turner (3-for-6 with a home run and two RBI) and Kyle Schwarber (2-for-3 with a walk) have both enjoyed success against Baz despite limited opportunities against the American Leaguer.

Bryson Stott (1-for-6) has struggled, but the Phillies as a team hold a 9-for-29 (.310 average) career mark against Baz.

Props

Sánchez, as always, offers strong value on his strikeout prop of 7.5 (+118) for those backing his swing-and-miss stuff. At the plate, Kyle Schwarber is always a strong candidate to clear the fences, priced at +198 to hit a home run; for a safer play, bettors can also look to Schwarber to record over 0.5 hits at -190.

Elsewhere in the Phillies’ lineup, there is solid value on Bryce Harper to record over 1.5 total bases at +104; Trea Turner, who homered in last night’s game and boasts a .500 lifetime average against the Baltimore righty, sits at -107 to surpass 1.5 total bases. Backing the top of Philadelphia’s order could prove profitable if they string together early offense.

Tidbits

• Philadelphia has also skewed heavily toward lower-scoring games on the road, with the under cashing in 58.18% of their away games while holding a 29-26 (.527) straight-up road record.
• The over has hit in 60% of the Phillies’ last 10 games, though the team has struggled to a 2-8 (.200) record during that stretch.
• Over bettors have also found success backing the Baltimore Orioles recently, as the over has cashed in 60% of their last 10 games while the team has played to an even 5-5 straight-up mark.