Phillies vs Mariners Preview: Pitching Matchup and Props for Aug. 24

Squeeze in a post-work nap or brew some coffee, because the Phillies are playing on the West Coast for the next nine games. Monday, Aug. 24’s matchup will begin at 9:40 p.m. in Seattle, where the Fightins (73-58) will try to push their MLB-best winning streak to ten games against the Seattle Mariners (62-69), who haven’t managed to gain any momentum from their American League Championship Series run last season.

Odds are close to even with the Phillies playing so far from home. ESPN Analytics sees them winning 54.6 percent of simulations, while both Philadelphia (-120) and Seattle (-101) have minus odds at DraftKings; the Phillies, once again, are the slight favorite. The over/under sits at a miniscule 6.5 as Logan Gilbert and Zack Wheeler face off, with the Phillies an underdog (+153) to cover the -1.5 run line.

As per usual, NBC Sports Philadelphia holds the broadcasting rights for tonight’s game. 

Expect partly cloudy skies and temperatures around 73 degrees as of first pitch. They’ll table off to the mid-60s as the game goes on and, while it should be a beautiful (if brisk) night for baseball, T-Mobile Park does have a retractable roof that could cancel out the elements’ impact. Humidity will sit around 57 percent at first pitch, a mild number for the Pacific Northwest, climbing toward 70 percent as the night wears on. 

The breeze is expected to come out of the north at 9 to 17 miles per hour, but the worst of the wind will die out as the sun goes down. If the roof is open, the wind blowing in could knock fly balls out of the air short of the wall.

Pitching Matchup

Expect a premier duel tonight with aces Zack Wheeler (2.92 ERA, 120.1 innings pitched, 1.01 WHIP and 10.8 K/9) and righty Logan Gilbert (3.35 ERA, 150.1 innings pitched, 1.01 WHIP and 9.4 K/9) facing off. Even though he’s spent his entire career in the American League, the Phillies have faced Gilbert for 93 at-bats, posting a .237 batting average with four doubles, four homers and two walks. They strike out 30.1 percent of the time against Gilbert, about in line with his career rate.

Brandon Marsh (2-for-17 with a double and six strikeouts) boasts the most at-bats but has also struggled mightily in the lefty-on-righty matchup. J.T. Realmuto (2-for-6 with a homer) and Kyle Schwarber (4-for-14 with a double, a homer and seven strikeouts) have both done significant damage. Luis Arraez (2-for-12 with a double and a homer) struggles to get on base against Gilbert but drives the ball when he does; Trea Turner (1-for-8 with a homer) is in a similar situation.

The Mariners have a .172 batting average (10-for-58) all-time against Wheeler, with exactly half those at-bats coming from Victor Robles (6-for-29 with a double and two walks). The rest of Seattle’s lineup slumps to a miserable 4-for-29 (.138 batting average) mark against Wheeler, so it’s understandable why the over/under sits as low as it does.

Gilbert’s success against lefties this season (.195 batting average against with 11 homers in 84.1 innings, as opposed to a .231 batting average against with nine homers in 65 innings) could prove problematic for the Phillies’ lefty-heavy lineup.