Phillies vs. Braves Playoff Preview: Pitching Matchup and Props for Game 3

The Philadelphia Phillies will take on the Atlanta Braves at Truist Park starting at 8 p.m. on Thursday, Oct. 1 with both teams’ seasons on the line in Game 3 of their Wild Card series. Philadelphia warded off elimination with a thrilling 4-3 win in ten innings yesterday, and the final game of the series will have plenty more drama as both teams weigh their pitching options from an exhausted rotation and bullpen.

NBC and Peacock will carry the broadcast for this matchup on a warm night in Atlanta. Temperatures will start around 79 degrees and drop into the mid-70s, while humidity will range between 65 and 75 percent. Five to 12 mile per hour winds out of the southeast may knock down fly balls in the outfield, giving the pitching staffs from both teams a boost. Neither team has announced a starter yet: the Phillies are expected to send out Aaron Nola (4.67 ERA, 175.1 innings pitched, 1.35 WHIP and 9.1 K/9) at first and have Zack Wheeler available in relief, while the Braves are likely to go with lefty Ray Kerr as an opener before turning to Grant Holmes (3.44 ERA, 151.2 innings pitched, 1.31 WHIP and 6.8 K/9) for the bulk of their innings.

Betting Odds

• Moneyline: Philadelphia Phillies -115 / Atlanta Braves -105
• Run Line: Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 (+150) / Atlanta Braves +1.5 (-185)
• Over/Under: 7.5 (Over +100 / Under -120)

Pitching Matchup

Holmes has allowed 20 hits in 88 at-bats (.227 average) against this Phillies’ lineup. He’s at his best when he’s inducing soft contact, and that could help him eat innings if things go the Braves’ way. Trea Turner (4-for-11 with a double, a homer and three walks) has the Phillies’ most success against Holmes; Bryce Harper (2-for-8), Kyle Schwarber (2-for-11 with three walks) and J.T. Realmuto (2-for-8 with a double) have all cleared the fences against Holmes but haven’t had much success otherwise.

Nola pitched 13.1 innings against the Braves over the final month of the regular season, allowing just three runs in that time despite a pair of Phillies losses. After struggling mightily to start the season, he put up a 2.47 ERA after the calendar flipped to August… but the Braves’ recent experience against him could help them figure him out. Historically, Atlanta is batting .288 (120-for-416) with 23 home runs and 31 doubles against Nola, but those numbers include his struggles since the start of the 2025 season.

Ronald Acuña Jr. (23-for-65 with eight doubles and four homers), Austin Riley (24-for-70 with five doubles and seven homers) and Matt Olson (11-for-43 with three doubles and five walks) could all prove a problem for Nola; as a lineup, they’re striking out 23.2 percent of the time against Nola, and the potential for a quick hook if things start to go wrong could keep his strikeout total low on the prop market. Wheeler pitched six innings on Sunday, Sept. 27 but has held the Braves to a .225/.271/.401 slash line with 14 homers in 347 at-bats; Acuña accounts for five of those homers.