Phillies vs. Braves Preview: Pitching Matchup and Props for Sept. 11

The Philadelphia Phillies will try to bounce back from a tough home series when they travel to face the Braves at 7:15 p.m. on Friday, Sept. 11, their second series with Atlanta in the last ten days. The Phillies (82-65) split their home series with the Braves (86-61) a week ago and currently sit four games behind them in the National League East playoff race. Overtaking Atlanta is a tall order with 15 games left in the season, but this three game series is their best remaining chance to gain ground.

There’s a 25 percent chance of rain in the 7 p.m. hour, so a delayed start is possible. Temperatures are expected to sit around 80 degrees, but humidity between 80 and 90 percent won’t provide much relief. Truist Park sits on a southeastern axis, so four to 11 mile per hour winds out of the south-southwest will depress offense rather than giving it a jolt. The Phillies will send resurgent righty Aaron Nola (4.76 ERA, 155 innings pitched, 1.37 WHIP and 9.41 K.9) to the mound against Braves star left-hander Chris Sale (2.10 ERA, 150 innings pitched, 1.01 WHIP and 11.04 K/9).

Nola has pitched like his old self since the calendar flipped to August, posting a 2.41 ERA over his last seven starts; his last outing was a loss to Atlanta, one in which he fired seven innings of one-run ball. NBC Sports Philadelphia holds the broadcasting rights for this crucial duel.

Betting Odds

• Moneyline: Phillies +158 / Braves -190
• Run Line: Phillies +1.5 (-141) / Braves -1.5 (+117)
• Over/Under: 7.5 (Over -110 / Under -110)

Pitching Matchup

Nola has 391 at-bats of experience against this Braves’ lineup; they’ve slashed .286/.340/.535 against him in that span, hitting 21 home runs and drawing 32 walks. He’s managed 103 strikeouts (24.3 percent), but the Braves’ success against him means they could chase him from the game before he hits that point.

Batters of particular concern are Ronald Acuña  Jr. (22-of-62 with seven doubles, four homers and eight walks), Austin Riley (23-of-68 with five doubles and six homers), Matt Olson (10-of-41 with three doubles and four homers) and Mike Yastrzemski (5-of-16 with two doubles and a homer), all of whom boast an OPS north of 1.000 off Nola.

With just three seasons in the NL East, Sale has less of a track record against the Phillies. He’s held them to 34 hits in 154 at-bats (.221 batting average), amassing 50 strikeouts (31.3 percent). Kyle Schwarber (5-for-22), Sale’s former teammate with the Red Sox, has a triple and two homers but also strikes out plenty. Sale has tormented Bryce Harper (2-for-18 with nine K’s) and J.T. Realmuto (2-for-16 with seven K’s), but Luis Arraez (6-for-19 with two doubles), Alec Bohm (7-for-21 with a double and a homer) and Trea Turner (7-for-22 with three doubles) all get on base at a healthy clip.

Sale allowed two runs in six innings when he faced the Phillies a week ago, both coming on extra base hits from Bohm. On the prop betting market, Sale’s strikeouts are always a solid play, as are those Braves’ batters with a high degree of success against Nola; the Phillies are a riskier pick, given how good Sale is, but there are plenty of individual performers to target for props like total bases.