Villanova Bracketology: How Wildcats Compare to the Bubble

Villanova’s three game winning streak has them inching toward the top 50 in the NET rankings, roughly the same area they occupied following their Jan. 8 win over UConn that put them firmly on ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi’s NCAA Tournament bubble. This time around, however, the Wildcats aren’t on the list, posing the question of what it will take for Villanova to creep back into the picture and vie for an at-large bid once March rolls around.

The Wildcats currently hold a 15-10 record (8-6 Big East), with that record broken into 1-5, 5-2, 3-2 and 6-1 splits in Quadrants 1 through 4, respectively. Those Quad 3 and 4 losses could end up sinking Villanova’s chances at an at-large bid, even with a trio of top 15 wins at their disposal. Of the 12 teams currently in Lunardi’s edge of the bubble categories as of his most recent ranking on Wednesday, Feb. 12, just four have one or more Quad 3 losses: Kansas State (2), UC San Diego, USC and Pittsburgh. Just three have lost a Quad 4 matchup: VCU, UC San Diego, Boise State.

Eight of 12 teams possess a higher NET ranking than Villanova, with Xavier (who picked up a top ten road win over Marquette), Indiana (three Quad 1 wins), Kansas State (four Quad 1 wins) and USC (three Quad 1 wins) the lone exceptions.

Six of 12 teams possess a winning percentage tied with or worse than Villanova’s .600 mark, and the Wildcats have a head to head win over Cincinnati, who slots in just ahead of them at 15-9 with a game in hand. Given how they compare to the rest of the bubble, Villanova could well sneak their way into the mix with a road win over Providence on Saturday, Feb. 15.

How Villanova Stacks Up