Villanova Preview: Quad 4 Opportunity Against Rider

Villanova Men’s Basketball will try to establish a three game winning streak when they host Rider at 7 p.m. on Saturday, Nov. 14.

The Wildcats (2-1, No. 40 in KenPom) are overwhelming favorites to do so; Rider (1-3, No. 359 in KenPom) ranks as one of the worst teams in college basketball — just two spots ahead of Holy Cross, who Villanova pummeled 95-66 a week ago. ESPN Analytics simulations see the Wildcats winning 99 percent of the time, while betting lines list the Wildcats as a -35.5 point favorite and won’t even list the money line odds.

Here’s what to watch for in this matchup on ESPN+, one that will almost certainly count as a Quadrant 4 matchup when the NET rankings debut in early December.

Scouting the Broncs

Rider doesn’t yet have a win over a Division I program. Throwing out their stats against Division III – William Paterson, the Broncs have made 58 of 179 shots from the field (32.4 percent) and 15 of 68 (22.1 percent) of threes. 6-foot-4 Philadelphia Roman Catholic graduate Khalil Farmer leads the Broncs in scoring with 12 points per game. 6-foot-8 forward Rich Brisco is their tallest starter, while 6-foot-8 center Stephen Avegah Semey and 6-foot-10 sophomore Segun Ezekiel Obe have played sparingly but could earn more playing time against Villanova’s oversized lineup.

The Broncs have just 21 assists on 58 makes this season, an indication of just how much they’ve struggled to move the ball, but an average of nearly 21 free throws attempted per game could help them stick around if the Wildcats start to foul. 

Shot charts from their losses to Pitt, New Hampshire and Binghamton indicate poor selection and a flurry of mid-range misses. With an average of just 25 points per game scored in the paint — Villanova is averaging more than 37 — and given the Wildcats’ size, Rider’s best hope at keeping things close would likely come from a resurgence from beyond the arc.

This game marks a sort of homecoming for Rider junior Nasir Washington (Penn Wood), senior Mark Butler (William Penn Charter), junior Horace Simmons Jr. (La Salle College High School) and freshman Bryce Presley (Roman Catholic).

Scouting Villanova

The Wildcats have run hot and cold through three games, making 28 of 79 three-point shots (35.4 percent) and 65 of 106 two-point shots (61.3 percent). Jake Fiegen (12 PPG, 10-of-18 from three) and freshman Adam Oumiddoch (9.3 PPG, four-of-eight from three) have both provided plenty of punch from long range, Oumiddoch doing so off the bench.

6-foot-10 forward Kwame Evans Jr’s availability is a situation to monitor as he continues to recover from a lower body injury: he hasn’t yet started this season and appeared for 11 minutes off the bench against La Salle, rotating in in place of starter Devin Royal.  Villanova’s ability to have both Evans and Royal on the court at the same time could be a major factor in their success moving forward, but head coach Kevin Willard said that they’ll need to get more practice reps in first. Both Royal (14 PPG, 8.3 rebounds per game) and starting guard Tyler Perkins (10.7 PPG) have had extended cold stretches this season.

7-foot-3 Italian center Luigi Suigo (14 PPG) leads the Wildcats in rebounds (10.7) and blocks (2.3) per game despite a slow first game against Notre Dame, and played like a gamebreaker for stretches against Holy Cross and La Salle. Elijah Crawford (seven PPG, 6.3 assists per game, 1.7 steals per game, 2.3 turnovers per game) has started the last two games at point guard in place of senior Buddy Simmons II and is settling in as a passer despite muted scoring output. 7-foot-1 center Nico Onyekwere is averaging 11 minutes off the bench and has shown flashes of excellence in place of Suigo, averaging four points, 4.5 rebounds and 1.5 blocks in that limited time.